The active healthy population in Russia may decrease by 2.1% in the next few years. It has been reported DEA News Based on the ACRA credit rating agency’s report.
According to the agency’s forecast, the annual average unemployment rate will be 4% this year, 3.8% in 2023 and 3.7% in 2024.
As analysts say, over the next few years the supply of labor will fall more significantly than the demand for labor.
The number of active healthy population, which includes the civilian population between the ages of 15 and 72, may decrease by 0.8-1.1% by 2024 compared to 2021. The report’s authors attribute this to the fact that the number of young people entering the labor market is not compensating for natural death and aging.
A reduction of 0.2-1% is possible due to the decrease in the share of workers employed in the civil field, the relative increase in deaths and injuries, as well as the increased migration density. At the same time, it is possible that the active healthy population will increase by 1.2% due to additional efforts to integrate healthy migrants.
“As a result, ACRA estimates will vary from minus 2.1% (strange assumptions) to plus 0.2% (optimistic assumptions) in the active working-age population,” the estimate says. According to analysts, the share of wages in total production costs may increase in response.
The average salary in Russia in 2022 will be 63.9 thousand rubles. per month, in 2023 – 68.7 thousand rubles, in 2024 – 75.5 thousand rubles. The forecast also states that real disposable incomes of the population will fall by 2.5% and 1% in 2022-2023, and will only grow by 1.2% in 2024.
It is estimated that the number of workforce in the Russian Federation will be 74.5 million in 2022, 74.9 million in 2023 and 75.2 million in 2024.
Albert Bakhtizin, former Director of the Central Institute of Economics and Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (CEMI RAS) declarationIt is stated that the main reasons for the decrease in the birth rate in the world are the increase in the education level of women and the availability of birth control methods.