Beyond the new commitments and avalanche of reports that all climate summits usually leave behind, COP27 has left two particularly striking headlines, even if they seem to contradict each other. And there are two news: one is good, the other is bad. The bad news is that the planet has only nine years left to really accelerate the cut in emissions unless it wants to exceed 1.5ºC of “extra” warming, which then theoretically should not be reached by 2100. The good news is that nonetheless, three of the world’s biggest polluters (China, India and Europe) are moving faster than expected towards decarbonisation.
The report, released during the summit by the Global Carbon Project, a renowned global panel of more than 100 scientists examining the impact of carbon on the global climate, gave a clear idea of how things are going. In short, according to the research in question, there is a 50% chance of exceeding the 1.5ºC fate figure in 9 years compared to the pre-industrial period. That horizon is set for 2100, but not for the next decade, which makes the forecast much worse.
Determined to take “radical and urgent” measures so that the bullet does not touch us in this important game, experts conclude that half the chance of this rise going this far is actually due to playing Russian roulette.
In fact, the latest known data on warming doesn’t exactly row in favor of the planet. In 2021, emissions rebounded after the pandemic bracket and there was great anticipation for what would happen in 2022. Well, the Global Carbon Project’s projections suggest that this year will end with a new increase in CO2 emissions from concrete. 1% compared to 2021. It may seem like a small thing, but when sudden and serious drops are expected, any increase is equivalent to a defeat.
The culprit behind this increase in 2022 is the boom in the use of oil (its emissions increased by 2.2%) and coal (1%), as those from gas decreased by 0.2% and those from cement use by 1.6%. All experts agree that the recovery in aviation after the pandemic is one of the main reasons for this 1% global increase in emissions in 2022.
How do you know we have nine years left to reach a 1.5ºC increase? Most importantly, the Global Carbon Project takes into account the amount of gigatons of CO2 released into the atmosphere annually. Given that humanity will reach 1.5ºC of warming with another 380 gigatons of CO2 released (and 40.6 gigatons released in 2022 alone), it’s easy to calculate when there will still be a “reserve” of carbon dioxide that can be used. It was launched before reaching the fate limit set by the Paris Agreement.
The authors of the report do not think that emissions can be reduced to the required extent in such a short time. In fact, to reach 2100 with “only” 1.5ºC of warming, there would have to be declines similar to those recorded during the Covid pandemic in 2020 for every year until then.
“We don’t see green growth when Covid is over. Global Carbon Project member Philippe Ciais states that we continue to have an increase from the use of fossil fuels.
Pep Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project and Principal Investigator at the CSIRO Climate Sciences center in Canberra (Australia), was quite clear in a recent meeting with journalists: the world is heading towards a warming of 2.4ºC by the end of the century. In the latter case, the difference between 1.5ºC and 2.4ºC can be abysmal, according to all scientific research that paints a truly bleak picture. And yet, it already seems most likely.
If carbon emissions into the atmosphere continue at the current rate over the next four or five years, the planet will exceed 2ºC. “We’re heading straight for that scenario, even more than 2.4º,” he said. And he added that current extreme weather events already predict the future: “Extreme weather events are now going beyond what we think. Maybe we didn’t quite imagine what a world with 2º more would be like,” Canadell warned.
But isn’t there any positive news to hold onto? There is. On the one hand, the increase in emissions does not stop, but slows down. It rose 3% annually in the 2000s, but only 0.5% over the last decade. On the other hand, China, India and Europe, three of the largest emitters of CO2, are on track to meet their decarbonization targets sooner than initially envisaged in their national targets.
Another overlapping report by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) details China’s impressive support for clean energy, so emissions will fall by 0.9% in 2022. However, there are other factors as well, such as the slowdown in its economy and the high reforestation rate performed by the Asian giant.
In India, too, renewable energy is seeing a phenomenal rise. And while this country remains highly dependent on coal (India’s emissions increased by 6% in 2022 compared to 2021), reductions are expected to be large enough to reverse the tortilla in the same decade. coal is marginal compared to renewable energy sources.
The European Union, the third industrial power to experience significant declines, will see its emissions fall by 0.8% in 2022, mainly due to the 10% drop in gas associated with the war in Ukraine.
In the United States, however, it will increase by 1.5% due to increased consumption of gas used to get rid of coal. But the United States is currently the second largest investor in solar and wind power after China and will generate 85% of its energy from renewable sources by 2030.
The ECIU report reveals that “rapid price cuts mean that wind and solar power is now much cheaper than fossil fuels,” a fact that has encouraged many governments and investors to row in that direction.
Now, despite these glimmers of hope, experts stress that “the time frame is shrinking.” Promising hopes or commitments for the future are no longer enough, concrete and immediate measures and far-reaching.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced last month that fossil fuels will reach their peak consumption in 2030 and begin to decline from there to renewable energy sources. However, the disappearance of hydrocarbons will not be abrupt and will be a slow and gradual decrease, which will cause a large amount of emissions into the atmosphere for many years.
Thus, the overall vision of the situation casts more shadow than light on the future of humanity in the medium term.