Wednesday night and after days of nonstop rain, the freezing cold forced locals to pull their mid-winter coats out of the closet and lock themselves in their homes. But it’s the warmth that doesn’t bother the fair-haired and flushed-faced customers, some of whom are in short sleeves and shorts, on the terraces of Alicante’s most touristic streets for dinner. After two years of pandemics with their countless waves, not even a war has been able to keep them at home any longer, and they are eager to enjoy their well-deserved vacation to the fullest. some are in front of them.
“The weather is still very cold in Europe, the winter has been very long, and in most countries Spain is seen as a place of refuge, the country farthest from the existing conflict”, explains the hotel management general secretary of the Valencian Community of Hosbec. Nuria MontesConvinced that from this weekend, when national visitors join foreigners, the region could experience a record Easter, or at least an Easter very close to what was recorded in 2019 before the outbreak of the pandemic.
According to the head of the Spanish Confederation of Hotels and Tourist Accommodation (Cehat), in reality a recurring situation in most Spanish resorts, Jorge Marichal. “The desire to travel is still strong, people want to go out more than before,” says the businessman, citing recent research the organization conducted with PwC, which showed that the intention to visit Spain was even higher than last year. Year 2019 in countries such as Germany, the Netherlands or all Scandinavian countries.
In the first quarter of the year, despite the omicron and the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there were already areas with occupancy close to 75%, although major cities such as Andalusia or the Canary Islands, together with Madrid and Barcelona, were large cities. They were only around 60 percent due to the slower recovery of Bash, Convention and event tourism.
Good prospects, confirming the big chains like Meliá or RIU, which have over 70% occupancy for April in their resort businesses this week, waiting for the last hour to raise this figure further, and also confirm Benidorm. based chain, Magic Costa Blanca.
Of course, this does not mean that the war had no effect. While the short term may seem warranted and everything indicates that the first litmus test since the beginning of the conflict will be successfully passed, optimism is marred by uncertainty when questions are asked about the coming months and, above all, the summer.
“The consequences of inflation, which is accelerated by conflict and mean a serious loss of purchasing power for families, a loss of consumer confidence, may affect us more than the real human tragedy of war,” he says. Vice President of Benidorm chain, Javier Garcianevertheless, confident of a good season is evidenced by the fact that the company has already opened all its hotels, except for the renovated hotel.
In this way, they acknowledge a certain slowdown in booking rates for the coming summer from Hosbec, a drop of around 10% from 2019 figures. compared to the best year ever for the industry”. Nuria Montes.
However, businessmen believe the consequences of this loss of purchasing power will not translate into a reduction in the number of trips as a reduction in length of stay – tourists will have fewer days to adjust to their new budget – or lower target spending. That is, in restaurants, shops or tourist attractions. “We are likely to see more full pensions and ‘all-inclusive’ packages to control the budget,” he says. Montes.
But if the effects of inflation on customers’ purchasing power are worrisome, the other side of the coin is even more worrisome: the cost increase it entails for hotels and other tourism-related businesses. They point out from Meliá that the strength of demand combined with investments in product improvement or digitization already presented a “growing trend” at rates before the crisis in Ukraine, but this is not enough to soften the current uptrend. Price:% p. “Inflation is becoming so important – price increases of more than 50% and 80% for some products, as well as energy – are bringing a new element of tension to companies in the sector, we have come from very difficult years”, admits Meliá’s CEO, Gabriel Escarrer Jaumebelieves that it is “inevitable” that this increase in costs will be “at least partially” passed on to customers.
As a result, the chain expects to exceed 70% occupancy at their establishments this Easter, with peaks of over 80% in destinations like the Canary Islands, and is confident that figures very similar to 2019 can be achieved. in summer.
Likewise, the RIU estimated their occupancy rate for the next few days to be 72% this week, expressing confidence that last-minute bookings will even lead to the “full” sign being posted on the most popular holidays. destinations. Of the direct consequences of the conflict, they only highlight the decline in reserves from Poland – “which makes sense because of their proximity and participation”, they explain from the company, but they are aware that the war is of “enormous size”. uncertainty factor.
This same uncertainty is one that hovers over the aviation industry. Despite the war, Spanish airports closed last March with a passenger volume of 80% of what they had before the pandemic, and for the summer, airlines have 2% more scheduled connections than in 2019, which “means companies rely on” Airline Association (ALA) As his spokesperson noted, he is in recovery” Caroline Smith. Another thing is that later scheduled flights fill up.
As for the problem created by the increase in fuel prices, Blacksmith He assures that most companies have insurance coverage that guarantees a fixed price for a significant percentage of the fuel they consume, but points out that this is up to each airline and above all how long the final results of this will depend. war. price increase.
What appears to be a place to stay here, according to all interviewees, is the tendency for tourist reservations to be made later and later. First it was caused by the uncertainty of whether the pandemic will bring a new wave, and now the distrust of the possible consequences of the conflict, but everything shows that the last hour has already become one of the new defining features of the war. The job is very permanent.
When it comes to airlines, it’s a trend that forces them to be much more agile when designing their operations, says an industry spokesperson. Added to this is the demand for more flexibility in changes and cancellations, which are other features of the new tourist after the pandemic.
Among the businesses that lagged behind the recovery in the tourism sector are travel agencies, the activity with the highest percentage of workers remaining in employment. At the end of last month, 22.9% of their employees were still in this state, according to Social Security data representing approximately 8,900 professionals. They will be the first to initiate the new sectoral RED mechanism to devise workforce reform. According to Mercedes Tejero, director of the Spanish Confederation of Travel Agencies (CEAV), last year these businesses were able to recover only 56% of their pre-pandemic turnover.
As the business spokesperson reminded, a large part of their turnover is dependent on business and convention tourism, which is still in recession, and another important part of Spanish international travel, which remains at a low level. Among other reasons, many countries, especially Asia, are still closed to tourism due to the pandemic.