Behind “champagne effect” resulting from last year cursed demand Housing prices throughout the province, which increased by 2.8% during the pandemic and in one year, stabilization phasewith a slight downward trend next three years. At least, that’s the estimate made by Alicante valuation expert Euroval, based on the historical series records and the predictable evolution of employment since 1995.
An estimate that the appraiser himself warns that this is global data for the province as a whole and must be taken into account that the situation has changed significantly, yes. among some municipalities and others -with a more dynamic beach and calm interior- and Between the condition of the new home and the condition of the used home.
Thus, globally, Euroval forecasts that the average price per square meter will decrease by 0.28% this year, 0.61% in 2023 and 0.51% in 2024. The cumulative decrease over the three-year period analyzed was 1.4%, The average value of the meter will increase from the current 1,318 euros to 1,300.
A situation that contradicts what will happen NationalEstimates by the appraiser show a price increase of 1.7% and also Valencian Communityit predicts an increase of 2.4% for the province of Castellón, first of all thanks to the evolution forecast.
In any case, the director of Euroval Gumersindo Ruiz points out that according to his methodology, any change between -2% and +2% should be accepted. stability. A stability marked by great weight second hand market in total, where prices remained more stable, among other things, due to the abundance of supply.
cost increase
On the contrary, the appraiser warns of higher increases in the housing situation. new constructionRuiz, who is faced with a significant increase in costs and has already experienced a significant increase in recent years, points out that this increase may lead to somewhat misleading interpretations. Therefore, the expert recalls that the promotions that are currently being built have nothing to do with those that are built in the middle of the “explosion”. changed qualifications and product type which was mostly built.
In any case, the effect of ascension new construction your total is very limited because newly built homes are barely taken into account at the moment. between 10% and 12% of the marketthat is, it is the evolution of the second hand that determines the global value of the province.
Likewise, Euroval reminds us of the enormous inequality that exists between the municipalities of Alicante. costa Thanks to the tourist demand or attraction power of the new residents of the capital, it is much more dynamic and interior where the population is stagnant.
At the autonomous community level, Alicante will be the province where house prices will predictably fall the most through 2024. For the remaining provinces of the Community, the estimates will be: Valencia (3%) and Castellón (6 .5%).
The projection made by Euroval is a autoregressive vector model (VAR) is based on price series and the number of people employed because there are obvious signs of correlation between them and both series are annualized to correct quarterly data. The predicted variable is the average price per square meter at the provincial level, and the reference data for calculating the evolution in each of the three years considered (2022, 2023 and 2024) is the average price per square meter corresponding to the last quarter of 2021. .