this Autonomous communities as a whole will close 2022 with a public deficit of 1 percent. GDPThe figure is higher than predicted last July, but will improve significantly until it drops to 0.1% in 2023, according to the Independent Authority for Financial Responsibility (AIReF) forecast.
This Friday, the organization published its report on local companies, as well as individual reports on projects and key budget items of autonomous communities for 2023.
Regarding autonomy, AIReF revises revenues and largely expenses upwardsBased on the implementation data observed to date, the eventual closure of 2021, information provided by the communities themselves, and the latest measures, without considering the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan (PRTR) in both cases.
Specifically, in 2022, it provides more revenue collection, mainly through the Property Transfers Tax and Documented Statutory Laws and European funds.
By 2023, the global balance of the autonomous sub-sector will basically improve 9-tenths due to the “extraordinary” increase in the resources of the financial system.23.9% is driven by growth in account deliveries and, to a greater extent, payments, which once again turned positive after an “extraordinary” negative value this year.
According to the new forecasts, 2022 forecasts for Andalusia improve while they worsen in Aragon, Asturias, Balearic Islands, Cantabria, Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha, Catalonia, Extremadura, Madrid, Region of Murcia, Navarra, La Rioja, and Community Valencian.
In 2023, Aragon, Asturias, Balearic Islands, Canary Islands, Cantabria, Castilla y León, Extremadura, Galicia, Madrid, Navarra, Basque Country and La Rioja can close the year with surplus or balance, or with a limited deficit like Andalusia.
Castilla-La Mancha could reach a balance close to the reference stated for the sub-sector and Catalonia could run a slightly higher deficit, and only for the Community of Murcia and Valencia, AIReF continues to forecast deficits greater than 1% of regional GDP.
In the medium term, AIReF forecasts a temporary surplus of 0.4% of GDP in 2024, which will gradually decrease until equilibrium is reached in 2026.
As for local companies, the Independent Accountability Authority maintains its overestimate at 0.2% of GDP for 2022 and raises it to 0.5% for 2023.
As with autonomies, the evolution of the surplus of local companies is marked by the liquidation of the financing system, and to this are added compensations for the negative liquidation of 2020, to which compensations are added between 2022 and 2024, which will place the surplus in capital. 0.6% last year
After analyzing the new data, AIReF evaluates the better performance of local revenues, mainly those from economic activity, for this year, despite the negative impact of the allocation on the State’s financing system to the year 2020 when all negative settlements were made, more than 2 tenths of GDP. more than.
For 2023, it reaches a surplus of 0.5% due to the expectation of an annual expenditure growth of slightly more than 2%, well below the revenue forecast of about 7%.
According to AIReF forecasts, nine of the large local companies will close 2022 with a deficit, including the impact of the liquidation; these include the estimated deficit for the Cabildo de Tenerife and Barcelona City Council due to the high percentage of income. In addition to the provincial councils of Madrid, Murcia, Córdoba, Valladolid and Gijón and Valencia and Seville.
Of the 24 large companies analyzed, 13 forecast a deficit this year, although most did not include the impact of the liquidation in their forecasts. economic activity and the positive impact of the 2020 settlement.
At the same time, according to the companies’ own projections, the annual growth of calculable expenditures will reach an average of 12% in 2022, but the provincial councils predict an increase of 20%, the Cabildo de Tenerife 50%, the Vigo Municipal Council about 30% and Córdoba 22%. is