Yuri Felshtinsky, Russian-American historian and expert in evolution russian secret service From the beginning of the last century to the present, he draws in his book –‘Ukrainefirst major battle of the third world war (Deusto)- a panorama of the evolution of the world that is the least disturbing Vladimir Putin’s war against the Ukrainian people. He has lived in the USA since 1978.
Is the war in Ukraine the first episode of a global conflict?
I believe February 24, 2022 is the beginning of the third world war. It’s the new September 1, 1939 – the German invasion of Poland. The mobilization of (reserve forces) on September 21, 2022 was the third mobilization in the history of the 20th and 21st centuries, first of the USSR and later of Russia. It is very similar to the two previous mobilizations in July 1914 (before the First World War and on June 23, 1941, when Hitler attacked the USSR). Political statements from Russia sound more offensive every day. Putin openly declares that he intends to use nuclear weapons. So I think so, we are already in the third world war.
If, as you say in your book, the third world war has already begun, are we aware of the moment we find ourselves in? Can we avoid this?
Unfortunately, the clock is ticking. The only way to avoid a full-scale third world war is to win it while it is raging inside Ukraine. If the Ukrainians lose, Putin will move on. Therefore, to prevent the spread of this war, the Ukrainians must win a decisive victory over Russia. But for this, the West must give them the weapons they need and, more importantly, allow them to attack enemy territory, namely Russia and Belarus. Unfortunately, every day brings us closer to full-scale war.
Has the West been soft on Russia in recent years, especially after the annexation of Crimea? The book argues that sanctions against Russia are delayed by 10 years.
Yes, of course. This is so obvious that it is a very naive simplification to state it today. If the West had reacted to the 2014 annexations with the decision we see now, there would be no attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022. And if the West had reacted similarly to the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008, there would have been no attack on Ukraine. There is no annexation of Crimea in 2014. But that’s the same as saying that if Britain and France had faced Hitler in Munich in 1938, instead of surrendering Czechoslovakia to him, World War II would not have happened. It may be, but it’s too late to discuss it now, and all these mistakes have become a part of history.
It confirms that if Donald Trump wins the elections in 2024, it will be decisive for Putin. Why? Why?
Trump had declared in his previous presidential campaign that NATO was obsolete and that Europe should defend itself rather than seek US help. He gave two main reasons for this: financial and strategic, stating that the enemy of the USA is China, not Russia. The problem is that for Trump this is nothing more than an excuse to help Putin, about whom he has not said a single critical word. The nature of Trump’s fascination with Putin is highly suspicious and mysterious. This may be related to Russia’s financial support for Trump during his presidential campaign in 2015. It could also be related to the material. compromate (Russian term used to describe compromising materials about a politician or other public figure) that the FSB (successor to the KGB) has against Trump. But whatever it is, it seems that Trump will support Putin in every way and will never support Europe in this conflict with Russia. Trump is Putin’s last hope because he knows that if Trump becomes president he will withdraw from European affairs and leave Europe alone against Putin. This is exactly what Putin wants.
Why do you think Putin can only be stopped by force? What kind of power?
The whole West tried to be nice to Putin, the West tried to “understand” Putin (during the Chechen war in 1999 and the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008), the West closed its eyes to Putin’s actions – Chechnya in 1999 war, during the invasion of Georgia in 2008 and the invasion of Crimea in March 2014. This led to a full-scale war against Ukraine in 2022. Has Putin been stopped in Ukraine? Yes, so far, it has been stopped by the Ukrainian Army, armed by the West, after eight months of war. Force and only force. But the war is not over and the worst may be yet to come. Putin is trying to mobilize a new Army and invade Ukraine. Its strategic objectives have not been changed, only the time frame and duration have been changed.
Why do you say that Russia today looks like Nazi Germany in 1939?
I mean, February 24, 2022, when Russia invades Ukraine, could be our September 1, 1939. Before September 1, 1939, Hitler did not kill many people and united the Germans into a single state with almost no power. According to these calculations, if we count the deaths during the second Chechen war, the Georgian war in August 2008, and the 2014-2022 war in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, Putin probably killed more people before February 24, 2022. The Germans publicly or silently supported Hitler. The opposition was relatively small. We also see support for the Putin administration in Russia. It’s still too early to make predictions. But the trends are very dangerous, and there are many similarities between what Hitler did before September 1939 and what Putin did before February 2022.
He argues that history will be split between before and after February 24, 2022.
Hitler did not have nuclear weapons. Putin has it. The world we live in has changed dramatically on February 24, 2022, not only because Putin launched the great war in Europe (for the first time since 1945), but also because he considered the possibility of using nuclear weapons. It puts us all in great danger. We’ll see what happens to Russia, Ukraine, the rest of Europe and the world. But whatever happens, February 24, 2022 will be a date we will all remember as much as we remember September 1, 1939.
Do you think it is possible to restore the Russian empire as Putin hoped?
No, this is not possible. Fallen souls cannot be restored. There is not a single example of this in human history. The problem is, Putin doesn’t know this because he doesn’t know history and doesn’t believe in learning and sincerely believes it’s possible to rebuild an empire with military force. He also sees restoring it as his destiny.
Do you think China could be involved in a world conflict alongside Russia?
I am not a Chinese expert. But my impression is that China will never help Russia in Putin’s war against Europe. In my opinion, a military alliance between Russia and China is impossible. Is a conflict between China and the US possible? It may be, but we are not facing this problem yet, probably not in a few decades. Also, unlike China, Russia and Putin, World War II. He learned from World War II. It seeks to dominate the world not through military occupation, but through economic expansion and domination. This is not the same as waging war.