The Atlantic Current, a massive marine ‘conveyor belt’ that carries warm waters from the tropics to the North Atlantic, is slowing and is on the verge of collapse that will change temperatures in Europe. Scientists have been warning about this for years. The latest study not only confirms the power loss of this sea current, but also predicts a sudden stop in the not-too-distant future. The halt will have consequences across Europe, causing prolonged droughts and sending much of the continent into a permanent freezing winter.
“When this happens, the movement of warm tropical waters into the North Atlantic region will stop and these waters will become colder waters and have a decisive influence on the climate of the region,” says atmospheric physicist from the Complutense University of Madrid. , Juan Jesus Gonzalez Aleman.
According to this research published in the journal Nature, there is already sufficient evidence of the behavior of this water ‘conveyor belt’ (known as). Atlantic Meridional Tipping Circulation -AMOC-) to determine that it is on the verge of “imminent collapse”.
Thermohaline circulation (THC) is one of the most important components of ocean circulation on a global scale. Basically, it is one of the determining factors of the global climate, due to its significant contribution to the net heat flow of the entire world.
Located within this conveyor belt, the AMOC is responsible for regulating the temperature in the southern part of the Atlantic.. “Thanks to this, the climate in Madrid is warmer than New York, despite being at a similar latitude,” the atmospheric physicist says.
Its operation is characterized by a stream of warm and salty water moving through the upper layers of the Atlantic, while another stream carries colder and deeper waters south, which will later form part of the thermohaline circulation.
However, the engine that drives this Atlantic current has run out of power over the past decade, and climate change itself is believed to be responsible. “It’s not exactly known, but many theories, the melting of Greenland as the main cause of this slowdown”, reassures González, because it is precisely the ice of Europe’s coldest places that allows this Atlantic current to work.
This situation, together with the density of surface waters due to the deepening of climate change, has caused the system to go one step further from total collapse.
The study does not specify when this phenomenon may occur, but does not rule out that it will happen in the next decades, and possibly before the end of the century. “This It will have disastrous effects for Europe and the whole world.”, the researcher concludes, as it will suddenly “change the climate radically”.
In fact, this particular situation is considered a “climate system tipping point”, meaning that once it occurs, the climate of that region will never be the same again.
Nine climate ‘tipping points’
There are nine climatic landmarks Included in the list prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) because they are severely affected or are at serious risk of extinction.
These nine elements are Arctic sea ice, Greenland ice sheet, boreal forests, permafrost, Atlantic Ocean current system, Amazon rainforest, warm water corals, Southern Ocean western and eastern Antarctic ice sheets. All these tipping points are interconnected, and so what affects one has repercussions in the other.
“This situation could be much worse than global warming.“Given that with it the effects are gradually being noticed, but nevertheless, it is still a radical change with unexpected effects”, he insists. Possible impacts include reduced precipitation, a much denser snow cover in more parts of Europe, problems in agriculture or greater probability of events such as more intense cyclones.
What is happening, as González Alemán warns, is that while these effects may seem counterintuitive and somehow offset by climate change, this is very likely not to be the case.
Emphasizing that the only thing that this collapse produced is that, the researcher insists, “There will be places where a balance can be found between both phenomena in others where climate change reduces and strengthens its effects.” The future scenario is “much more complex”. “We don’t know all the effects it could have, and it will likely create unpredictable events,” he says.
Reference work: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01097-4
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