this Savings Banks Foundation (Funcas) lowered his forecast economy is growing up to 0.7% by 2023 In a context where GDP will go through a temporary state of technical recession with negative rates of change in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, according to the research service. Funcas presented their new perspective for Spaniards this Tuesday. An economy that raised its growth forecast for 2022 to 4.5% (three-tenths higher than its previous forecasts), but lowered its 2023 forecast from 2% to 0.7%, well below the Government’s forecast. 2.1%), also those estimated by the Bank of Spain (1.4%), Airef (1.5%) or the IMF (1.2%).
At least for now, Funcas stands out as the most pessimistic research service for fiscal year 2023. The economy has weakened this Tuesday, as explained by Funcas chief executive Carlos Ocaña and the foundation’s Situation Director Raymond Torres. will be perceived stronger in the coming quarters due to stagnation of private consumption in the context of energy crisis and inflationThis undermines consumer confidence.
According to this analysis, The loss of purchasing power of households due to inflation will affect lower private consumption. after more and more families consume their savings mattresses. Investments will also slow down. global uncertainty and the deterioration of the European economy. The contribution of the foreign sector will continue to be slightly positive at two-tenths of what was expected in July. According to Raymond Torres, “After a negative start to the year, recovery GDP From the second quarter of 2023 It will allow the Spanish economy to face the crisis energy shock It is in a better position than most countries in the eurozone”.
About price developmentsFuncas calculates that the private consumption deflator (the closest concept to it) is. inflation) will slow from 8.2% in 2022 to 5.2% in 2023, which is still a high rate.
The new macroeconomic picture, updated by Funcas, includes a slowdown in employment, but without reversing the recent recovery. Specifically, 220,000 net jobs are expected to be created between the second quarter of this year and the last quarter of 2023, and the unemployment rate is expected to be around 12% by the end of 2023.
when it comes public deficitThe rate is estimated to remain at 4.4% in 2023 (Government foresees a rate of 3.9%) and Public debt 112% of GDP.
with everythingFuncas warns of the high degree of uncertainty surrounding any economic forecasting. “The main risks hanging over the economy are energy crisis more intense than expected, which will make it harder for inflation to come down; a more aggressive-than-anticipated increase in interest rates could undermine the resilience of highly indebted economies; and effect Withdrawal of ECB support may have contributed to the permanence of the significant structural public deficit.