France is experiencing the first major wave of mobilization against the effects of inflation in the European Union, despite being the member country with the lowest price change rate in the euro area (6.2% in September). A comparison between the French and Spanish economies places the latter at higher rates in economic growth, but also in inflation and unemployment.
GDP growth
The French economy surprised by 0.5% growth in the second quarter, which was above expectations, bringing the annual growth rate to 4.2%. growth GDP. The Spanish economy is also on the rise, surprisingly at higher levels than the French. Spanish GDP grew by 1.1% in the second quarter, at an annual rate of 6.3% (compared to the same period in 2021). GDP level before the outbreak of the epidemicIt’s something Spain will have to wait for until the first half of 2024, according to the latest estimates from the Bank of Spain and tax authority Airef.
this International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that the French economy will grow by 2.5% this year and 0.7% next year. Economic growth prospects for the coming months have deteriorated significantly, and according to the labor service caixabankaraz The risk that activity may decline in the first quarter of 2023 has increased significantly. IMF estimates for Spain point to 4.3% and 1.2% for each of these two years, the highest rate among the largest economies in the eurozone. Airef does not exclude a temporary period of negative growth that may occur in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Inflation
France stands out as the country in the euro area. lower inflation rate. It fell to 6.2% in September after the 6.8% peak recorded in July. These rates contrast with the 10% average recorded in the euro area, and after reaching 10.7% in July, the harmonized consumer price index (IPCA) was found in Spain in September (8.9% as a non-compliant rate). below 9.3%. .
Much about the better evolution of inflation in France is that: gas dependencies It is one of the lowest among the major EU economies. Gas consumption represents around 20% of final energy consumption and only 7% of gas is used for electricity generation (compared to 48% in Italy or 17% in Germany). nuclear energy It produces about 67% of electricity. But as Caixabankresearch points out, nuclear power generation is not at its best. On the one hand, France is experiencing its worst drought An important factor for the operation of nuclear power plants since the sixties, which endangered the cooling of nuclear reactors. from another, almost 50% of nuclear power plants are not workingdue to planned shutdowns for maintenance missions or problems with reactors. As a result, France’s dependence on Russian gas has increased in recent months, although it is still far from what it represents in Italy and Germany.
Unemployment
Another issue in which Spain is at the forefront Francein a negative sense, it relates to the labor market. in France, unemployment rate According to Eurostat data, which determined the number of unemployed in the neighboring country as 2.23 million, it was 7.3% of the active population in August. SpainHowever, it remains the country with the highest unemployment rate in the entire European Union (12.4%) – ahead of 12.2%. Greece– With the number of unemployed around 2.9 million. this youth unemployment While it reaches 16.5 percent in France, it rises to 26.5 percent in Spain.
Open and Debt
France closed 2021 with a deficit of 6.5% of GDP. IMF’s expectation lack in french It will decrease to 5.1% in 2022 and rise again to 5.6% in 2023. Spanish public accounts they also suffer from a high deficit, but not as much as the French. The Spanish public deficit was 6.9% of GDP in 2021, but the IMF predicts it will fall to 4.9% in 2022 and to 4.4% in 2023.
when it comes debt levelFrance closed 2021 at 112.9% and the IMF predicts it will fall to 111.8% in 2022 before rising again to 112.5% in 2023. In the case of Spain, the IMF estimates the debt level to be 118.4%. In 2021, it will give 113.6 percent of GDP in 2022 and 112 percent in 2023.