Chairman of the Independent Financial Responsibility Authority (AIReF), Christina HerreroHe warned on Tuesday that inflation could exceed 5% in 2023 unless measures are taken to mitigate.
when he appeared before Congress Budget Committee On the occasion of the processing of budgets, Herrero stated that AIReF expects inflation to reach this year. Average 8.9% and 3.9% in 2023.
However, he warned that the 2023 forecast is based on the following assumption. measures to alleviateas it is already this year, it could be “if it wasn’t so” “just over 5%”.
Given this scenario, Herrero said it “seems reasonable” to extend some of the measures taken or adopt others.
The head of AIReF believes that this is so because the Government’s own scenario is in 2023. economic conditions will continue because “one week after the project was submitted, the measures that were not included were already announced” and the budget plan sent to Brussels included two scenarios, one cautiously and the other imprudently.
Criticized that there was in recent years “A drift in which budgets have an ongoing set of notable shortcomings.“Control capacity and increased in 2023.
In addition to the lack of measure, it calculates “based on unrealistic 2022 closing revenue projections”, in his view, something that cannot be discreetly justified.
The head of the institution recalled the forecast of economic growth for the next year. 1.5%, six-tenths of the Government, It is partly due to the “carry-up effect” of 2022, as there are indications of a recession in the third quarter and a possible negative development in the fourth quarter.
If the risk increases, these estimates will be distorted. gas sourceIf monetary policy is tightened, private consumption is brought under control, or the implementation of European funds is delayed despite “a rise observed in September”.
completely “speedWith the assumption that the energy crisis is resolved, it forms one of the conditions for the Recovery Plan’s forecast of “pre-pandemic GDP recovery to be met in the first quarter of 2024.
3.3% open
as much as possible openHerrero has set his forecast for the end of 2023 at 3.3% of GDP, six-tenths below the Government’s. can jump to 4.6% If inflation-fighting measures are extended.
AIReF for this year public deficit It will close at 4.4% of GDP, which is below the Government’s forecast of 5%.