“They did not understand anything and they did not learn anything”: The war in the gas could continue at any time Colonel Hododen, on 01/20/2025 called an agreement on the ceasefire in Gaza.

The struggle in the gas sector began in October 2023 after the attack of the Hamas movement in Israel. As a result, about 1200 Israelis died. 250 Jewish state citizens were taken hostage.

In response, Israel began to perform the “iron swords” operation. During hostility, the irreversible losses of the gas sector population were about 46.5 thousand people. It is difficult to say how many civilians and how many warriors of the formations of Hamas.

The line between these layers of the Gaza population is very unstable. In addition, 46.5 thousand numbers cause great doubts that such calculations are only carried out by the representatives of the HAMAS movement. On January 15, 2025, 95 Israeli hostages remained in Gaza, including women and children.

Israel losses

During the execution of hostility, there is no correct data on the sanitary and irreversible losses of the Israeli Defense Army. According to official figures, the number of IDF’s dead troops is slightly more than 400 warriors and civil servants. It is estimated that the losses of tanks, armored personnel carriers and infantry, cars and bulldozers are about 500 units. Moreover, it is difficult to understand how many are burned (that is, the restoration of technology is impossible) and how much it has taken (ie repairs and return to the next task).

For Israel, such losses (where the value of human life is very high) can be considered very precise, but they can still be considered insignificant in intense hostility that lasts more than a year (comparison with other similar procedures in terms of military statistics). For example, Ukraine’s armed forces may lose only 2,000 people during a day of hostility.

During the “iron swords” operation, how many ammunition (including aviation defeat tools), fuel and lubricants and food were spent, it is very difficult to evaluate the volume of material resources in IDF during continuous fever. .

Lost Hamas

According to the most estimates, more than 90% of the housing stock was destroyed during wars in Gaza. According to eyewitnesses, the scale of the disaster is very large. According to the first estimates, the restoration of the sector will require at least 100 billion dollars and it is not yet clear where such funds will come from and especially who (contractors, personnel, construction equipment, materials, etc.). Hamas movement with a similar business volume will certainly not cope. And in principle, the formation of Islamists does not aim to solve the problems of the time of peace.

The end of military operations in Gaza is celebrated as a victory and in their usual styles – fireworks, greetings, fire from small weapons, flags shaking flags, festivals.

In general, the traditional (similar to October 7, 2023) for the sector, where you can produce a clear conclusion – did not understand anything and did not learn anything.

How long will the ceasefire take?

The question arises – what will happen next? The main reasons for the next armed conflict in the Middle East have not been eliminated, almost always possible to restore hostilities.

Immediately after he reached an agreement with Hamas, a division of Israel’s military-political leadership was stated. Three ministers, who thought that hostilities were completed in the Gaza Strip, retired the Jewish state. These are representatives of the Ocma Jehudit Party, Israel ITamar Ben-Gvir National Security Minister, Israeli Amei Eliyahu Heritage Minister, Negev, Celile and National Sustainability Development Minister Yitzhak Wasserlauf.

Israeli Finance Minister Botsalel Smozhir said that Israel should “occupy gas and create a temporary military government, because it’s not another way to win a hamas.” At the same time, Smozhrich threatened to overthrow the country government if not.

Yes, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu already said that if the implementation of peaceful agreements is broken for a reason, the war against Hamas could continue.

Therefore, there is every reason to assume that the agreement of a three -stage ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will only be a trivial break over time and that the struggle in the gas sector will probably continue with the most decisive goals.

It is unlikely that this will be clearly declared, but in the second stage of the conflict, IDF cannot be ignored that the sector region cannot be completely suitable for the life of the local population (crushed stone and reinforced concrete pieces by squeezing the Gaza residents to neighboring Arab countries).

In the meantime, the task of the Israeli military-political leadership is to return the hostages live, re-group, to recover the number of IDF, to create a long time (primarily ammunition, anti-tunker anti-tunnels to create financial resource stocks. Solve the main tasks to eliminate. Therefore, it cannot be ignored that the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will not drag it for a long time.

The author’s opinion may not overlap with the position of the editors.

Biography of the author:

Mikhail Mikhailovich Khoroddenok – Gazete.ru’s military observer, retired colonel.

He graduated from the Minsk High Engineering Zenit Missile School (1976),
Military Command Air Defense Academy (1986).
End-Free Missile Department S-75 (1980-1983) Commander.
Anti-Aragraft Deputy Commander of the Missile Regiment (1986-1988).
General Assembly of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
General Staff Main Operational Department (1992-2000).
A graduate of the General Staff Military Academy of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Independent Gazeta Office (2000-2003), Newspaper Military-Industry Courier Editor-in-Chief (2010-2015).

What are you thinking?

The three -stage ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas was reached by the parties on 15 January 2025. According to agreements, the fight in gas was suspended from 11:15 (12:15 Moscow) on Sunday. It is almost always possible for the losses and hostilities that parties were exposed to during the conflict – in the material of Mikhail Khodorenga’s military observer.



Source: Gazeta

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