this economy United States of America 0.2% shrunk and thus a two-quarter decline in gross domestic product (GDP) as a result of the global crisis. ukraine war Y runaway inflation.
Data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BEA), Second consecutive decline in GDPtraditionally considered a technical recession.
However, a diagnosis Does not share the US governmentWho doesn’t believe the country is in a recession scenario, given the robustness of its economy.
Data for the second quarter of 2022, the first of three forecasts made by the US President, The economy contracted by 0.4% in the first quarter.
According to the report released by the BEA this Thursday, 0.9% annual decline rateThe elements of this decline are high inflation, problems in the supply chain and increase in interest rates. In return, he highlighted unemployment.
Same way, private investment fellwas partially offset by increases in real estate (residential and non-residential), federal, state and local government spending, exports and consumer spending. Imports, which are subtractions in the GDP account, increased.
They’re laying the groundwork for days of bad data from Joe Biden’s manager and institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or the Federal Reserve, and they insist there are enough economic indicators for the US to ignore it. going into recession.
Jared Bernstein, one of the economic advisers of US President Joe Biden, insisted on his statements to Efe on Wednesday. arguing that recession is a concept that takes into account many factors..
“The idea of ​​a recession is defined by economists as a broad and persistent decline in economic activity. A two-quarter decline in GDP, especially if these declines are mild,” Bernstein said, not wanting that. to paint a “very gentle image” of the situation.
The data are known a day after the Federal Reserve raised the official interest rate by 0.75 percentage points for the second month in a row and did not exclude another “unusual high” increase in September if inflation continues to rise.
Inflation rate of the world’s largest economy in June remained at 9.1%, Something not seen since 1981.
Last Tuesday, the IMF released its forecasts, calculating that the US economy will grow by 2.3% this year and 1% next year, predicting that April will decrease by 1.4 and 1.3 points, respectively.
While the agency does not predict that the US economy will enter recession this year or in 2023, “a little shock may be enough” to get it to that stage.
Source: Informacion
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