Can Ukraine survive without US weapons?

This is the worst possible moment for Ukraine. Perhaps the most negative event since late 2022, when his troops achieved their last significant success on the battlefield and liberated many. Territories occupied by Russia. Kremlin troops are once again taking the initiative. They are advancing with points Donbas and accumulate strength within Kharkiv trying to recapture the province. Their motivation was to deal with exhausted Ukrainian forces and serious ammunition shortagetranslates to: increase in local losses and its impossibility planning future operations, As Royal United Services military analyst Jack Watling told ‘Financial Times’.

To all this we must add the confusion (and possibly unrest among the troops) that will be created by the dismissal of General Zaluzhni, announced this Thursday by Zelensky, who has led the defense of Ukraine since the beginning of the war. Or the law regarding the recruitment of new personnel is being finalized in the Parliament. Without the guarantee of U.S. support, it is doubtful whether it will garner a major response from citizens already reluctant to take action.

Gradual military decline

Although the White House failed in its attempts to confirm 60 billion dollars The weapons waiting on the table in Congress will not suddenly dry up. Pre-commitments ensure these continue for several months or even years. Therefore, experts have expectations. gradual decline but this will be increasingly noticed battlefield. “Ukraine will not be able to throw counter attacks. By February or March, you will have difficulty achieving this. counter-attacks at the local level and at the beginning of summer he will suffer to repel it Russian attacks” wrote Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel and analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “At some point, the front will collapse and Russia will bring a harsh peace“.

The drama of Ukraine is that its aid is entangled not only in the domestic politics of the United States, which is extraordinarily Cainite, but also in its own domestic politics. election campaign. A time when concessions made to the opponent were considered a little less serious than betrayal. Especially in the Republican Party Donald Trump. Seeing that its first attempt failed, the White House separated aid to Ukraine from funds for border security. Work to get it approved within the scope of the package, which also includes 35 billion additional aid. Israel.

But the first attempt in the Upper House, which is a priori more receptive than the conservative-held Lower House, failed yesterday. “If we fail to honor our commitment to Ukraine, not a single nation, friend or rival, will ever fully trust us again,” the Democratic senator wrote online. Mark Warner. Washington is risking its credibility, but as Afghans know all too well, this is not the first time it has let its allies down.

Europe cannot pick up the USA’s slack

USA was the main power for most of the war Weapons donation to Ukraine But this trend changed last summer, according to a study by the German Kiel Institute. In total until October 2023, European Union and its member countries contributed 47% of this contribution. heavy weaponscompared to 43% in Washington. “Our data confirms this impression.” growing suspicions from donors In recent months. “Ukraine is becoming increasingly dependent on a smaller number of donors,” wrote Cristph Trebesch, head of the Kiel study. GermanyUSA and Nordic countries.

However, experts agree that Europe cannot replace the United States if its aid is cut. Does not have these features manufacturing capacity to do this at the required speed. Just a few days ago, the German Defense Minister admitted that Brussels could not fulfill its commitment to surrender Kiev. one million artillery ammunition In March. It will actually send you less than half the promised amount. Therefore, Ukraine’s future looks darker with each passing day. Among military experts, without US assistance, Kyiv will lose the war sooner or later.