Donald Tusk and the challenges of a still-virtual change in power in Poland

1.The party with the most votes compared to the European hope

Although PiS is President Duda’s party, he officially suspended its membership when he took office. He received the most votes in the October 15 election but does not have the necessary majority or notable allies. It will have 194 of the total 430 seats in the Sejm and does not already have the support of the far right and libertarians ConfederationHe prefers to follow his own path in opposition with 18 seats. The pro-European opposition bloc controls 248 positions. However, there are three alliances behind this theoretical bloc: Civil Platform The rest of Tusk with 157 MPs Third Way centrist and New Left or Lewica. There are more than 12 parties ‘hiding’ in this bloc or alliances total. ideological gaps An important and common desire is to prevent the formation of another PiS-dominated legislature after eight years in power. owned by Morawiecki 14 days from the constituent session to try to find allies or vote back. Tusk will have to wait until his failure is complete to choose his option before the Sejm, which could take weeks.

2.Reunification with Brussels

Tusk brings together: desire for change and above all Reconciliation with European institutions After the continuation of the conflict represented by PiS. He has pledged to lead the reunification process with Brussels, which has blocked funds sent to Warsaw after the pandemic. There are many obstacles he must overcome in order to gain power and succeed. The judiciary will have to reverse the harshest aspects of its reform This decision, which violates the independence of justice in the eyes of the European Commission (EC), will not be easy with an unstable majority and without the control of the Senate. He will not be able to keep his promise to roll back the abortion reform, which is effectively banned in Poland under PiS. While there are conservative currents within the Third Way’s main ally who will not support it, for the leftist Lewica this is an indispensable condition, just as it must be to end the harassment of LGTBI groups together with PiS. strength.

3. How can you separate yourself from the Church and related media?

Tusk also faces the challenge of maintaining a distinction between them. State and Church, a staunch ally of the ultraconservative PiS. Poland is among the most prominent countries catholics European Union (EU). It is accepted that 92% of the population and 85% of this large bloc follow these rules. But mass mobilizations against the practical ban on abortion surprised those who thought Catholic Polish society was monolithic. Just as it will not be easy to break these ties, it will also not be easy to eliminate the submission of the media affiliated with the government. Since 2015, PiS has brought about a change in the media, especially in the media.TVP public television and Radio Polskie, as well as the PAP news agency, also came under criticism, while critics faced strong pressure from the governing party.

4.Living with Duda

Tusk plans to return to power after serving as Prime Minister of Poland from 2007 to 2014, when he was President of the European Council. It will be up to him to live with a president who is originally from PiS. He already knew this experience in his first phase at the head of government. then president Lech Kaczynski, twin brother of current PiS leader Jaroslaw and ultra-conservative hawk. The air disaster at the Russian airport coincided with this phase of coexistence. SmolenskThe then president and 194 people on the presidential plane died. This was a national trauma Jaroslaw Kazcynski He continues to blame Tusk and Russia, whom he accuses of negligence in the preparations for the trip. If they come to power, they should live together Andrjez DudaHe is more moderate than Kazcyznki within the ultra-conservative family, but his responsibility is to approve laws, including repealing or replacing reforms promoted by PiS.