Uncertain future of defeated Armenia after the Nagorno-Karabakh war

Two weeks after Azerbaijan’s military operation against Iran Nagorno-Karabakh, stepanakertThe region’s capital and neighboring towns are now completely abandoned. Nothing but a few dogs and cats Russian peacekeepers The person whose job it is to avoid a returning war is the person who currently rules the streets.

Silence is sometimes broken only by a megaphone. Red Cross We are looking for people who are staying at home and those who are not. evacuated opposite Armenia, like the others. According to the international organization, only a few dozen remain. Old, sick and familyless people who can’t leave. They will do this in the next few days.

“Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh are in a very difficult situation. azerbaijan attack and the ten-month blockade that Azerbaijan barely allowed neither food nor medicine “to the region,” he explains. Armen KhachikyanArmenian sociologist and university professor:

“A lot volunteer groups They mobilized to ensure food, clothing and shelter to those who came as displaced. This is a disaster This is happening before the eyes of the world,” Khachikyán continues.

Everything happened very quickly: on September 19, without prior notice, Baku During the first Karabakh war in the 1990s, a large-scale military operation was launched against Nagorno-Karabakh, which was established as a de facto independent state but was a region inhabited by Armenians. internationally recognized region from Azerbaijan.

It took only 24 hours to force the region to surrender. Local Armenians could choose between staying in Armenia or going to Armenia. But the election, after a century of conflict and hatred, brother fight brotherAnd ethnic cleansing, It never existed. All Karabakh Armenians went to Armenia. The region where Armenians lived for thousands of years was left without them.

Thus, chaos spread to Armenia. “Anger, disappointment and shock state In Armenia, these are normal and natural. The surrender of Nagorno-Karabakh in 24 hours is a defeat much larger size More than the defeat in the second Karabakh war in 2020 — explains Richard Giragosianmanager Center for Regional StudiesA. think tank Based in Yerevan. But this righteous anger will veer in several directions: Russiafor him complicity and incompetence; against Westwith contradiction between their words and actions; It can even do this against the Karabakh elites who surrendered so quickly.

In the eye of the hurricane

However, the most criticized and discussed person to date is undoubtedly the Government of the current Armenian Prime Minister. Nikol PashinyanPart of the population accuses them of inaction in the face of Azerbaijani aggression. Almost every day these last two weeks, thousands of people They demonstrated in front of his office.

“I am participating in these protests as a sociologist, professor and a citizen who is concerned about what is happening. Armenia is now The hardest and most important moment Since independence and as the protest movement has grown, it still seems very difficult to find support. a clear way out of the situation We are in too,” says Khachikyán.

Fear is hidden. MoscowYerevan’s traditional ally has stayed out of Baku’s way at every opportunity during the conflict. Completely victorious On the battlefield, many Armenians fear that their neighbors and historical enemies are not done yet.

“Is there a the real risk of another military attack “Azerbaijan’s struggle against southern Armenia,” says Giragosyan, and continues: “The reason for this is that Azerbaijan has become stronger with its military victory and remains strong with its perception towards Turkey. Unconditional support to TurkeyHE Israel’s support was disappointing and lack deterrent power against West Azerbaijan. Considering all this, there is no no incentive For Baku to stop now. “On the contrary, there is a very real danger that Azerbaijan will continue to rely on its military might.”

It was actually planned for this Friday. GrenadeThe first meeting was held between Pashinyan and the Azerbaijani president during the European Political Community summit. Ilham Aliyevwith representatives Germany, France and European Union. The meeting will not take place because Aliyev has nothing to discuss with “countries far from the region.” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was also planned to attend, but after learning of Aliyev’s decision, he excused himself from attending the meeting “due to the agenda”.

“Azerbaijan’s military victory two dangerous examples. First, Verifies power usage [como forma de conseguir los objetivos de uno]and second, it exemplifies victory of authoritarian power Before democracy,” Giragosian adds.