this Completely cut off imports of energy raw materials Russia It will have a “significant impact” on the Spanish economy in the first year it was able to subtract 1.4 points from economic growth and add 1.2 points to inflation. That’s what the Bank of Spain predicts in a study entitled ‘The economic consequences of hypothetical trade shutdown between Russia and the European Union’, published on Tuesday, hours after a deal was reached in the EU-27. Partial and progressive embargo of Russian oil and gas It aims to reach 90% of purchases by the end of 2022.
“A hypothetical supply disruption, a significant reduction in the current energy supply and a significant increase in production costsThe Bank of Spain summarizes to introduce the effects of an energy embargo on Russia on growth and inflation.
In the central scenario, the Bank of Spain estimates that the total energy embargo against Russia will subtract 1.1 percentage points from Spanish GDP and add 0.9 percentage points to inflation; These estimates are a Loss loss between 0.8 and 1.4 points GDP and an additional inflation score between 0.8 and 1.2 in the first year after the interruption of imports. The greater or lesser severity of the impact will depend on the ability of European economies to replace Russian energy supplies as soon as possible.
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In the event of a complete trade break with Russia – beyond energy products – the impact on the Spanish economy could translate into a 1.8 percentage point lower GDP growth (i.e. an additional 0.7 percentage point decrease over the central scenario estimated for the assumption). energy embargo). Regarding inflation, the overall effect will be 1.4 percentage points (0.5 percentage point additional effect of 0.9 point high inflation in the first year compared to the first scenario).
The analysis assumes that Spain would not be the European country most affected by the energy cutoff with Russia, given that it is less dependent on Russian products. In every situation, There is talk of a ‘significant’ impact on the Spanish economy that will drainnot only because of the direct effects, but also because of the indirect effects from the greater losses that Spain’s major trading partners – such as Germany, France or Italy – will have to reach Spain through their global production chains. more expensive imports, lack of supply, or reductions in Spain’s exports to these countries.
In the case of European economies, the effect of the energy embargo will be lower growth for Germany, between 1.9 and 3.4 percentage points; Between 1.2 and 2 points for France and between 2.3 and 3.9 points for Italy.
Generally, the most affected sectors will be those with the most energy useThe impact will be more limited for service sectors such as transport, basic metal industry or chemical industry.
Especially among the Spanish sectors, the greatest impact will be concentrated in the maritime, land and air transport sectors, as well as in the fishing, basic metals, chemical industry or electronic equipment. Conversely, the real estate, education or financial services industries.
In addition, it is expected that sectoral effects from other countries will spread to Spain as well. Some sectors of the Spanish economy, such as vehicle manufacturing or pharmaceutical production, are heavily dependent on customers and suppliers located in other EU countries. Thus, these sectors indirectly subject to production restrictions in other countries due to energy restrictions.