Computer simulations have shown that only strong measures to protect the climate will allow 30 percent of the Siberian tundra to survive until the middle of this millennium.. In all other less favorable scenarios, this gigantic unique habitat to disappear completely. The study, led by experts from the Alfred Wegener Institute, has just been published in the journal eLife.
The climate crisis is particularly felt In the Arctic: there, the average air temperature has increased by more than two degrees Celsius over the past 50 years, far more than anywhere else in the world. And this trend will continue. If ambitious steps are taken to reduce greenhouse gases, additional Arctic warming could be limited to just under 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
According to model-based estimates, If emissions remain high, we could see a drastic increase in average summer temperatures in the Arctic, up to 14 degrees Celsius. Above the current norm for 2100.
“Current and future warming will have dire consequences for the Arctic Ocean and sea ice,” Professor Ulrike Herzschuh, Head of the Polar Terrestrial Environmental Systems Department at the Alfred Wegener Institute at the Helmholtz Center for Polar Studies, said in a statement. (AWI).
“But the terrestrial environment will also change dramatically. Vast tundra expanses in Siberia and North America will be greatly reducedThe tree line, which is already slowly changing, will rapidly move northward in the near future.”
The tundra is home to a unique community of plants, about five percent of which are endemic, meaning they can only be found in the Arctic. Typical species include mountain oats, arctic poppies, or willow and birch trees; all adapted to harsh local conditions, such as short summers and long, harsh winters. It also provides a home for rare species such as reindeer, lemmings, and insects such as arctic wasps.
For its simulation, Ulrike Herzschuh and AWI modeler Stefan Kruse used the AWI LAVESI vegetation model. “What sets LAVESI apart is that it allows us to view the entire tree line at the level of individual trees,” Kruse explains.
“The model depicts the entire life cycle of Siberian larches in the transition zone, from seed production and distribution to germination and fully grown trees. we can very realistically represent the progression of the tree line in a warmer climate“, Explain.
The findings speak for themselves: Larch forests could be spreading north at a rate of up to 30 kilometers per decade. But The expanses of tundra, which could not be transported to colder regions due to the adjacent Arctic Ocean, would become even smaller.
In most scenarios, less than six percent of today’s tundra would remain by the middle of the millennium; Savings of around 30 percent will only be possible with the help of ambitious greenhouse gas reduction measures.
On the contrary, Siberia’s 4,000km uninterrupted tundra belt will be cut into twoIt is separated by 2500 kilometers by the Taimyr Peninsula in the west and the Chukotka Peninsula in the east. Interestingly, even if the atmosphere were to cool again over the millennium, forests would not completely liberate former tundra areas.
Reference work: https://elifesciences.org/articles/75163
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Source: Informacion
