BRICS expansion: a step towards multilateralism or a challenge to the West?

Perhaps to allay fears, the president Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaHe started his participation in the summit with a post on social network X, formerly called Twitter: “BRICS they are not a counterpoint Not against the G7, not against the G20, not against anyone.” Lula is not the only one at the geopolitical table trying to dispel the specter of a new counter-power. South AfricaNaledi Pandor made similar statements a few days ago, assuring that the expansion of the block was “extremely wrong”. anti-western movement. These two countries are like IndiaDespite agreeing to develop a “more inclusive international order” and supporting “the interests of the Global South”, they have expressed their reluctance to expand in the past for fear of seeing their current influence diminish. But at the same time, the thoughts of these three States trying to maintain a balance balance It clashes with the West with the intentions of Moscow and Beijing.

target Xi Jinping Turning BRICS into something rival geopolitical group of the G7 to counter the influx United States of America. This was recently explained to the ‘Financial Times’ by an official Chinese source: “If we expand the BRICS to represent a similar part of world GDP as the G7, then our collective voice in the world will become stronger.” on his behalf, Russia magnified search against insulation international and new markets things to avoid sanctions imposed by the Ukrainian war.

Talk to the G7 face to face

“What will benefit most from this expansion Chinese, “He’s the big winner,” explained Grupo Prensa Ibérica, analyst at the Royal Institute of Elcano to EL PERIÓDICO DE CATALONIA Carlos Malamudconsiders enlargement to be a “challenge in a way” to the West. “This is a continuation of the feud between the US and China.”

These five states represent 42% of the world’s population30% of the planet’s land and a quarter of global GDP. The group was born as a political actor at a summit in Yekaterinburg in 2009; Goldman Sachs Jim O’Neill coined this acronym to express the weight of developing countries in the world (excluding South Africa, which joined the club in 2011) and their potential to become the four dominant economies by 2050, as well as the need to reshape the global economy. political and economic governance will include them. However, China is the only country that maintains its upward trend despite the recession in other countries. If the expansion spreads to the combined 22 countries knocking on its door, some estimates will increase the club’s participation in the world economy to 40%, which could meet the G7 (43.5% of world GDP) face-to-face. .

“United Front”

The question is whether BRICS will hit the world stage and to what extent the balance of power will change. According to Maddalena Procopio, an analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), the bloc “has had a united facade He spoke on “various issues” and, despite his internal divisions, he succeeded in “sometimes diverting the discussions away from the priorities of the EU”. But Procopio, in his statements to this newspaper, is of the view that expansion into the Global South is not necessarily a wrestling. Because these countries “do not see expanding relations with other actors in the Global South as a way to belittle their relations with the West, but rather as a way to belittle their relations with the West.” diversify partners and maximize economic opportunitiesHe adds that it is certain that there will be an improvement in the “international legitimacy of the BRICS” and a change in “the global economic and geopolitical patterns as we know it now.”

According to Malamud, it is still “early” to know the results of the new bloc, but he predicts relations between the five member states and the six that will join in January will not be easy. “The alignment between the five original members is complex. China and India are systemic rivals rather than partners. Achieving big goals like Brazil’s proposed single currency will also require it. time and settings‘ he states.

Global South

Another issue that has emerged is whether or not the so-called Global South countries will benefit or benefit from joining the new bloc. In the opinion of the researcher from the Royal Institute of Elcano, this is not clear because the Global South is “not a homogeneous category”, “there are conflicting views on the economy, the war in Ukraine and the United States…” . “The only thing that will benefit countries in the process of accession is access to the BRICS bank (BRICS bank) New Development Bank),” adds Malamud.

The EFCR analyst, on the other hand, thinks that being included in the BRICS could be “positive” for these countries because it would allow them.”print more decisively in global governance environments to defend its own priorities, sometimes unlike that of the Global North”.

Time will tell whether the bloc will work towards true multilateralism and fairer relations, or whether it will copy existing structures and become another actor in the quest for global hegemony.