The world is one step away from crossing the red line of global warming

Also a 93% probability that at least one of the periods between now and 2026 will be the warmest year on record and getting 2016 off its seat in the first place.

Even more: The probability that the five-year average of 2022-2026 will be higher than 2017-2021 is also 93%.according to the ‘Global Annual – Decadal Climate Update’ (global climate bulletin) published by the UK Meteorological Office, the main WMO center responsible for such forecasts.

The Paris Agreement set a target of not exceeding 1.5ºC relative to pre-industrial levels this century, and this target has been reaffirmed in successive COPs. However, the room for maneuver is narrowing to reach this limit.

Drawing on the expertise of internationally renowned climatologists and utilizing the best forecasting systems from the world’s leading climate centres, the newsletter equips decision makers with actionable information.

And the last number shows that In 2015, the probability of global warming exceeding pre-industrial levels by 1.5°C at some point was virtually zero, but has continued to rise since then..

WMO offers more data: “The probability of exceeding the stated threshold for the period 2017 to 2021 was 10%, while for the period between 2022 and 2026 this ratio increased to almost 50%”.

Harmful effects for the entire planet

“This top scientific study shows that Significantly closer to temporarily exceeding the Paris Agreement’s lower limit on climate change”, emphasizes WMO Secretary General Petteri Taalas. And this 1.5°C threshold isn’t a random number, it marks “the point at which climate effects will become increasingly harmful not just for humans but for the entire planet.”

Exceeding the 1.5°C limit, domino effect: “Unless greenhouse gas emissions stop, temperatures will continue to rise. Parallel, oceans will continue to warm and it becomes more acidic, sea ​​ice and glaciers will continue to melt, sea levels will continue to rise and weather conditions will become more extreme. over heating most prominent in the Arctic and what happens in that region affects us all”, emphasizes Taalas.

WMO, the United Nations’ authorized spokesperson on air, climate and water, reminded that the Paris Agreement sets long-term targets to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the planet in 2015, thereby keeping the global temperature rise below 2° this century. C, above pre-industrial levels, efforts are underway to limit this increase to 1.5°C.

it happens Even 1.5°C of global warming will exacerbate the climate-related risks to which natural and human systems are currently exposed.However, yes, to a lesser extent than global warming reaches 2°C, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) points out.

Continuous increase in temperature

“According to our latest climate forecasts, continuous rise in global temperature will continueand in one of the years 2022-2026 there is a 50% chance that global warming will exceed pre-industrial levels by 1.5 °C,” says Leon Hermanson, specialist in charge of the UK Meteorological Office. detailing the bulletin.

“However, exceeding this 1.5°C value in a given year does not mean that the symbolic threshold of the Paris Agreement has been exceeded, but it would show: We are approaching a situation where the 1.5°C limit may be exceeded for an extended period of time.”, warns.

Among the results of the bulletin, the following stand out: For each year between now and 2026, the average annual surface temperature of the planet as a whole is expected to be between 1.1°C and 1.7°C higher than pre-industrial levels.. Also compared to the average recorded from 1991 to 2020 The Arctic temperature anomaly is predicted to be more than three times the global average anomaly..

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