IMF boosts Spain’s growth this year by one point to 2.5%

With an increase from April that surpasses that of any other major economy, the new IMF forecast places this year’s GDP growth at 2.3% from the 1.6% it calculated last March, surpassing the improvement already predicted by the Bank of Spain, and even higher than the Bank of Spain forecast. own government It was 2.1% in the stabilization program update sent to Brussels last May. The European Commission has calculated that this year’s GDP growth will be 1.9% in 2023 and 2% in 2024, an improvement over previous forecasts.

According to the IMF, data has been revised upwards due to “stronger currency”. services and tourismthis also helps Italy, with a four-tenth improvement over the previous estimate. This trend has been consolidated in recent months. up revisions by different organizations and educational services. One of the most prominent aspects is the evolution of employment. GDP already strengthened in the first quarter, up 0.6% from the end of 2022, one-tenth more than the National Institute of Statistics (INE) had previously estimated (0.5%).

fall in germany

Instead, for GermanyAccording to IMF estimates, the largest economy in the euro area 0.3% decline in GDP with “Weak manufacturing output and economic contraction in the first quarter of 2023“. All this necessitated a deduction of two-tenths from the previous estimate. It is the only country in the euro area to see a decline from the major economies., according to these forecasts, which in any case point to a 1.3% recovery next year. In conclusion, the eurozone’s GDP will increase by 0.9% this year; 2024 will strengthen with 1.5% progressin both cases one-tenth more than what was calculated in April.

The international financial institution forecasts a slowdown in worldwide growth, increasing from 3.5% forecast for 2022 to 3.0% (two-tenths more than April’s forecast) in 2023 and 2024 (unchanged from April). Although the forecast for the current year is better than April, “historically weak”, says the IMF report. It is well below the 2000-2019 historical average of 3.8% in the 2023-2024 period. This advanced economies It will slow by 1.5% this year, two-tenths more than predicted in April from 2.7% in 2022; and 1.4% the following year (without change). United States of America will increase 1.8% this year, two-tenths more than originally expected; however, it will fall to 1% in 2024, which is one-tenth less than predicted in April.

increase cycle interest rates first initiated by the US Federal Reserve, currently in the 5% to 5.25% range, which could rise this Wednesday; and then the European Central Bank (ECB) went from 0% to 4% in a year and it could raise them again this Thursday. “Continues to suppress economic activity”.

This is evolution “Gradually infiltrating the financial system”and banks in developed economies lending rules have been significantly tightenedDespite all this, world economic activity “showed that it was more resilient in the first quarter of 2023 and the service sector contributed the most to this resilience”.

it is planned that The general level of world inflation falls from 8.7% in 2022 to 6.8% in 2023 and 5.2% in 2024 and that Core inflation (most structural, excluding fresh food and energy prices)”gradually reduceAlthough inflation forecasts for 2024 have been revised upwards.

In the view of IMF analysts, the recent deal to raise the US debt ceiling and “tight measures taken by the authorities earlier this year” Banking crisis in the USA and Switzerland It has reduced the risks of a sudden deterioration in the financial sector.” Rather, “the outlook for global growth is tilting downward” and inflation “may remain high or even rise if further shocks, such as those from the escalation of the war in Ukraine and extreme weather events, lead to more restrictive monetary policy.”

In fact, the fund warns that “turbulence in the financial sector may return as markets adapt to the central banks’ new tightening policy.”

The forecast for world trade is that it will recover to 3.7% in 2024, down from 5.2% last year to 2% this year, but “well below the 4.9% average recorded in the 2000-2019 period.