An International Science Council panel of experts in public health, virology, economics, behavioral sciences, ethics and sociology proposed three scenarios for the development of the COVID-19 pandemic over the next five years. The report was published on domain Council.
In the first scenario, if the proportion of adults vaccinated against COVID-19 rises to 80%, the spread of the infection will be well controlled and have a positive impact on the economy, development and mental health.
If the vaccination rate stays below 70%, then in the second scenario, coronavirus will become a common disease with seasonal increases that will overwhelm hospitals, more money will have to be spent on vaccine updates and the development of new antiviral drugs, and global inequality is mounting.
The third scenario concerns the rise of nationalism and populism. As geopolitical tensions escalate, trust between governments and nations will erode, hindering international cooperation in science and medicine, and leading to lower vaccination rates. In this case, less than 60% of the population will be vaccinated and access to vaccines and medicines will be even more difficult for low-income countries than they are now.
“We need to renew our efforts to build a multilateral system that eliminates inequalities as we prepare us for the next crisis. Whether it’s another pandemic, climate change or conflict, we have a chance to learn from the past two years.”
They urged governments to cooperate and invest in health systems, integrating scientific advice, and addressing growing inequalities in education and welfare.
Source: Gazeta
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