Households with a low income level, the head of the family between 35-45 years old and low education level, residing in rural areas and having many members. This robot sketch It causes the Bank of Spain to suffer with greater intensity from the financial and regulatory measures that would raise the prices of the most polluting goods and services to the Spanish prospective family. progress strategy ecological transition and achieve the goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 to the atmosphere.
In its report on ‘Spanish economy facing climate challenge’, the Bank of Spain fails to measure the impact of low economic growth, which in the short term could mean compliance with ecological transition commitments. “It’s not that we don’t want to say what the economic impact on the Spanish economy might be, but that the calculations are very uncertain,” he said. General Manager of Economy and Statistics of the Bank of SpainÁngel Gavilan, during the presentation of this analysis, annual report information that the organization will publish in the near future. He didn’t dare to point it out. inflationary effect He said the ecological transition will have an impact in the short term, but many details still need to be specified.
Gavilan, however, spread in outline robot portrait of homes and productive sectors those most exposed to the challenge of the ecological transition. According to the Bank of Spain, these ‘losers’ are those who should be recipients of the compensatory measures that governments must adopt to ensure ecological transition. does not lead to more inequality.
Different consumption patterns
According to Eurostat, in 2019 household activities – mainly related to transport and heating – were responsible for 20.9% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Spain (the rest of the emissions were from the manufacturing sector). Based on microdata from the Family Budget Survey, the Bank of Spain estimates that the average CO2 content for every €1,000 spent by Spanish families 281 kilos in 2020. This figure is 6% less than in 2012 and three times less than the average for a US family, for example.
“The impact of physical and transitional risks associated with climate change can be very different between individuals, depending not only on their place of residence but also on their health status, age, education level or income, among other aspects,” protect the authors of the report. The analysis takes into account energy consumption in both the home (electricity, gas or air conditioning) and transportation (cars, journeys…), as well as expenditures on food, beverages, tobacco and other goods and services of different household profiles. makes a guess on intensity of CO2 emissions per euro spent for each.
“In short, there are clear signs that different types of households may be affected very unevenly by the ecological transition,” the Bank of Spain concludes. “Especially, predictable rise in the prices of the most polluting goods and services It will likely have a more pronounced impact on low-income households, heads of households aged 35-45, rural residents. [y, presumiblemente, mayor necesidad de desplazamiento en transporte]those with low education level or high number of members” are called.
In light of this diagnosis, the Bank of Spain argues that “it may be advisable to articulate public policies”. mechanisms to compensateTemporarily to the most vulnerable households in each of these groups because of the higher costs that the ecological transition may entail. reasons for justicebut at the same time social peace“The need to implement such compensatory measures will also be justified in seeking to reach sufficient and fundamental social consensus to drive the process of deep structural transformation that the economy and society must undertake in the coming years to face significant future climate challenges.
“Compensatory measures should be taken” sectors, companies and households most affected. They should be ad hoc, highly focused, and carefully designed. And they can be financed with resources from a greater environmental imposition,” advises the Bank of Spain.
Among productive sectors, around 70% of greenhouse gas emissions are producessector agriculture, livestock and fishing, transportation and electricity and gas supply. On the other hand, they are sectors that represent only less than 25% of production (in terms of gross value added) in Spain. On the opposite side, the Bank of Spain highlights those related to: construction, food and beverage processing, accommodation and tourism, because they are branches of activity that have low direct CO2 emissions, but produce a relatively high carbon footprint due to emissions from their linkage with other much more polluting sectors.
The Bank of Spain estimates that in case of a new increase in emission rights similar to that produced in the last three years (from 25 to 100 euros per tonne CO2). A decrease of 0.6 points in the level of GDP in three years, if the system is extended to all productive sectors, it can reach 1.3 points. Under this stress scenario, the Bank of Spain states that the sectors that will be most affected after energy will be other non-metallic mineral products, air transport and paper and maritime transport and agriculture, livestock and fisheries sectors. .