Tourism expects to grow 15,400 million more this year than the Government has calculated

The government as a whole has drastically lowered its economic growth forecast for this year, from 7% to 4.3% of its GDP forecast for 2022. “strong and sustainable” growth and official forecasts rely on a resurgence of tourism after the cessation of the pandemic, which will serve to offset some of the economic impact of the war and the crisis in energy prices.

The roadmap proposed by the government is for tourism GDP to recover 80% of its pre-Covid 2019 levels during this year, the highest historically for the sector. This is reflected in the Stabilization Plan 2022-2025 and the National Reform Plan sent by the Executive to the European Commission this Friday.

This Ministry of Economic Affairs led by Vice President Nadia CalviñoHe calculates that the tourism sector’s recovery through 2021 resulted in a tourism GDP close to 90,000 million euros, the equivalent of 57% of what was recorded in 2019. And the government forecast suggests that the industry’s GDP will reach 80% of what was registered in 2019. The last exercise before covid, which means increasing the contribution of tourism to approximately 126,300 million euros.

Although the government’s forecast predicts strong growth in tourism, it lags behind industry forecasts. Large tourist groups are showing more optimism this year and anticipate that the industry will recover faster this year, despite the impact of the war in Ukraine on the economy as a whole and the impact of high inflation on consumption.

The predictions you have covered Excelturlobby that brings together the country’s thirty largest tourist groups (among these, Meliá, Iberia, Globalia, NH Hotels, Riu, Amadeus or Renfe) They predict that the GDP of the tourism sector will close the year, reaching 141,681 million euros, recovering 91.6% from their pre-pandemic levels, as announced by the association a few weeks ago.

In fact, the cooperation has just raised its 2022 operating forecasts due to the confidence that the demand strength will continue in the coming months and exceeded the GDP forecast for the government-managed sector by 15,400 million to 15,400 million, with the new guideline. this is practice.

The lobby’s estimates, based on non-intensification or geographical spread of war, represent an improvement of 6,000 million more than the previous tourism GDP forecast for 2022, representing a very strong 57% increase over the 2021 figure. Strong development, the industry’s GDP is still 13,000 million below 2019 records before the Covid pandemic (154,738 million euros).

63,000 million revenue

This tourism recovery It is still far from complete after the pause caused by the pandemic, but the industry assumes that the recovery is going strong and is treated as a central forecast that will continue to accelerate for the rest of the year despite the economic impact of the war. . Increased optimism with good results at Easter.

This The arrivals and expenditures of foreign tourists are below. But major tourism companies are aiming to recover about 90% of the covid-induced decline this year. The predictions you have covered Exceltur They expect revenue from tourism (which foreign tourists actually spend during their stay) will reach 63,000 million euros by the end of this year, doubling their 2021 records, but still 11.5% below the pre-pandemic level.

Spain has accumulated nine consecutive years of tourism revenue records (what foreign tourists actually spend in the country) until the pandemic cuts short the progress. According to the balance of payments records prepared by the Bank of Spain, a historical maximum of 71,202 million Euros from tourism was reached in 2019.

In 2020, while total tourist stopovers took place for much of the year due to international travel restrictions, these revenues slumped by more than 77% to just 16,177 million, the lowest figure in almost three decades (especially since then). 1993). International travelers who visited the country last year injected 28.9 billion euros into the national economy, still 60% below pre-COVID levels and still at late 1990s levels.

According to the latest data released by the Bank of Spain between January and February of this year, Spain has entered 5,600 million euros for spending by international travelers, eight times more than in the first two months of last year (about 700 million). the industry was still at a standstill due to the pandemic, but still clearly below the pre-Covid level (7.2 billion in January and February 2019, just before the alarm state)

Difference between expenses and income

The real income from tourism is what effectively returns to the Spanish economy, the expenditure foreign visitors make during their stay in the country. And these tourism revenues are measured in the balance of payments by the Bank of Spain. For accounting purposes, they have an impact on the economy, similar to the country’s exports.

This National Institute of Statistics (INE) There is another accounting of foreign tourist spending – the Egatur survey – but with it it calculates everything travelers spend on their trip. The figure is always higher than that of the Bank of Spain, as everything includes costs that do not really affect the Spanish economy, not only during your stay here, but also before it comes to companies in your country of origin. There is a billionaire gap between what tourists spend each year and what the Spanish economy actually earns.

For example, compared to the 28,900 million actual tourist revenues estimated by the Bank of Spain for 2021, the National Institute of Statistics calculated that foreign tourist spending rose to 34,816 million euros last year, 76% higher than the previous year, but 62% above pre-pandemic levels. under.

Source: Informacion


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