After the return of summer, families and companies lamented back to business amid dark prophecies for the economy. recession in Europe and also in Spain. But from the end of October, economic data started to look better than expected: gas he began to be moderate; rationing risk in consumption energy in Europe; the electricity bill began to give way; the inflation continued chaining for months and work They showed their resistance again. Without getting optimistic, Spanish consumers’ confidence index started to improve in November, and credit card spending, which hit the bottom that month, recovered strongly in December and continued to gain momentum in the first weeks of January.
This is evident from the analysis by the study service. Caixabank Research It is based on anonymous data on the use of POS devices (point of sale terminal) in commercial establishments. Inside SeptemberSpending on Spanish and foreign cards in Spain continued to grow at an annual rate of 14%. Inside October Momentum dropped to 9% and November It bottomed out with 7% spending growth. However, in the middle of that month, a ‘disaster’ in the European and Spanish economies began to be ruled out. HE sudden stop in the economy was evident, but recession fears began to subside, coinciding with a rebound in payment card spending: December growth accelerated, and until it reached a 15% increase last week, no doubt driven by the fuel stock in the US. service stations Before the government bonus of 20 cents per liter of fuel disappeared on January 1. Payments in the ‘transportation’ category, in particular, rose 20% that week after a chain of negative interest rates since mid-year.
The tone of recovery in card spending was maintained throughout 2018. Fireplace, with annual increases of up to 19% in the second week of the month. Average spend on cards increased 13% in January (compared to an average of 10% in December). Although the comparison with the last year is conditioned by the effects of the year, omichrome variant Caixabank Research’s conclusion is clear: “The indicator shows that consumption is resisting. better than expected “Taking into account the complex macroeconomic environment in which we find ourselves, marked by geopolitical uncertainty, high inflation and rising interest rates,” said the Consumer Watch report released this Friday by the research service. domestic consumption It is explained with greater dynamism in three payment channels, namely face-to-face card payments, returns and predominantly e-commerce.
Major indicator
Spending tracking with payment cards (debit or credit) Major indicator This can be useful for predicting a diagnosis of the economic situation. GDP growth data for the Spanish economy in the first quarter of the year will be known until: 28 April, when the National Institute of Statistics (INE) released the first preview of the data. However, some advanced indicators are already used to measure the temperature of economic activity. This is the case for those who refer to the use of credit cards or the trust of economic agents. monthly data Social Security linkCaixabank Research, for its part, estimates that “the year started better than expected.”
In this chance, Independent Institution for Financial Responsibility, Airef, guess now Gross domestic product (GDP) may be growing by 0.3% in the first quarter of the year compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, where it increased by 0.2%. In terms of annual rate, Airef’s forecast model predicts a rate of 3% (compared to 2.7% in the fourth quarter of last year). At the end of October, Airef announced that the Spanish economy Technical recession with negative GDP growth rates in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023. Now it is clear that the economy is in a net slowdown, but not as much as was predicted a few months ago. All labor services revised their forecasts upwards. On average, the twenty research services that make up the Savings Banks Foundation’s (Funcas) forecast panel give their growth projections for 2023 at 1.3%, two-tenths higher than forecast two months ago.
Source: Informacion
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