“CO2 has nothing to do with it.” Another look at global warming Geophysicist Shalimov spoke about the impact of the earth’s crust on the biosphere 16.01.2023, 08:20

— Sergey Lvovich, you study the different crusts of the Earth and their interactions. How many shells does our planet have?

– There’s quite a lot out there. In an atmosphere of these shells, probably somewhere around 5-6. And each shell – or sphere – is marked with its own characteristic (in terms of physics).

If you move from the center of the earth, then, first of all, you need to understand that the Earth has not one, but two cores. The internal solid core with a radius of 1220 km is located at the center of the Earth and consists almost entirely of iron, a mixture of nickel and a number of light elements. This core is immersed in an iron solution with the kinematic viscosity of water, that is, in a liquid core. The temperature of the liquid core is about 6000 °C (near the solid core, the temperature is slightly lower due to the high pressure). The processes of formation of the earth’s magnetic field take place in the liquid core. At a distance of about 3500 km from the center of the earth, a viscous mantle crust with a length of about 3000 km begins, and its upper part, about 50 km thick, is called the lithosphere – a solid crust. It separates all life from the viscous asthenosphere. The movement and interaction of the lithosphere plates cause earthquakes. 2/3 of the Earth’s solid crust is covered by the hydrosphere, the Earth’s liquid crust. The solid crust is covered by the atmosphere – the gaseous shell of the Earth, dividing into several spheres, extending to an altitude of 800 km. However, as the altitude increases, the ionization of molecules and atoms in the atmosphere, especially solar radiation, comes into play. The ionosphere is formed – the part of the atmosphere that is ionized by the Sun. It begins where electrons affect the propagation of radio waves. The magnetosphere is the magnetic shell of the Earth. The boundary is determined by the equality of solar wind plasma pressure and magnetic pressure and is located 10 Earth radii from the center. The magnetosphere already contains fully ionized plasma. Together with the ionosphere, it protects us from the harsh radiation of the Sun.

– Which of the shells is currently best studied?

I think they’re all more or less equal. Although the intestines were still examined, probably less so. We can only judge what is going on there by processes occurring on the surface. However, it is also very difficult to obtain experimental data on the lower ionosphere (80-90 km above the surface) where meteoroids burn. That’s because the lower ionosphere is too high for probes and too low for satellites. Not all shells have been adequately studied yet. Therefore, it is very difficult to accurately determine the cause of global warming, for example.

– Is this? The reason seems obvious. This is carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere obtained during human activities.

– According to what is known about him, I strongly doubt that CO2 causes warming. In the last 100 years, the temperature has increased by about one degree, slightly less. The carbon dioxide concentration is about 300 to 400 ppm. We are told: this is because we burn coal, gas and oil. It is necessary to immediately stop burning all this, and then the temperature will not rise. But I guess that’s some kind of misunderstanding.

– Why is that?

“Because let’s say the temperature on Earth during the last interglacial period was about 2°C higher than it is today. The question is, how does that relate to CO2 emissions? There was no civilization yet 10,000 years ago. In addition, the temperature fluctuates for shorter periods of time. There was a cooling from the end of the nineteenth century to 1910. From 1910 to 1940 – warming. From 1940 to 1950 – cooling again. Then by the 80s stability and then the temperature began to rise.

The temperature fluctuates with amplitude of one-tenth of a degree, and the CO2 concentration increases monotonically. And the most interesting thing: the infrared radiation of the Earth’s surface, which is absorbed by CO2 in the atmosphere, does not correspond to that returned to Earth.

But is there a greenhouse effect?

– Yes. Where does the greenhouse effect come from? From being absorbed by the atmosphere and returning some of the infrared radiation to the earth’s surface. And from the point of view of experts who have dealt with this issue in detail (first of all, Boris Mikhailovich Smirnov from JIHT RAS), The main cause of the greenhouse effect should be considered water, not CO2. However, it is of course a question why the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing in general.

— Are there any hypotheses?

– There is a hypothesis of Linus Pauling, who argues that there is a balance between atmospheric and oceanic CO2 through the formation of calcium carbonate. If it is shifted slightly (for example, due to an increase in the temperature of the oceans), then the CO2 in the atmosphere will increase. Here we still need to understand the reasons. In any case, this is certainly not the CO2 increase from burning gas, oil and coal.

– Could the imbalance between the atmosphere and the ocean be caused by human activities?

– Maybe. We pollute the ocean. But how exactly does this balance change, why does the greenhouse effect occur, what to do about it, how to stop it – all these are questions that have not yet been answered.

-In addition to global warming, there is another process that is frightening the population of the planet. This is a comeback. As has happened more than once in our planet’s history, the magnetic poles can shift. So the compass needle suddenly starts pointing south. Is this true?

– Scientists, based on paleomagnetic studies, argue that there is such a phenomenon as polar reversal. That is, according to fossil rocks with a certain composition, it can be said which direction the geomagnetic field was in the past. And you can see the field changing direction. But this rarely happens, a few times in a million years. 780 thousand years have passed since the last event that showed the area opposite (Brunhes-Matuyama period).

– If this suddenly happens, what will happen to our navigation satellites?

First of all, the dipole of our geomagnetic field (the presence of two poles: north-south) and with it the magnetospheric and ionospheric protection we are used to from solar radiation will disappear.

The field won’t completely disappear, of course, but plasma from the solar wind and harsh radiation will in some places reach the Earth’s surface and destroy everything in its path, including satellites. Of course, this is not a very good scenario.

The operation of navigation satellites depends, among other things, on changes in the Earth’s rotational speed, the state of the atmosphere, and the ionosphere. In particular, the propagation of an electromagnetic signal in a homogeneous plasma without a magnetic field is different from its propagation in an inhomogeneous plasma with a magnetic field. And this should be taken into account.

On the other side, According to paleomagnetic studies, it takes about 10,000 years for the poles to reverse. So there will be enough time to adapt the navigation satellites to the new space, if they will get people excited at such times.

What will the compass needle point to?

– It can point to any place or turn. North and south are only in the dipole field.

– And is there currently a process of changing the polarity?

“It is impossible to set up because, as I said, the process takes a long time. And the observed decrease in the intensity of the field may be due, among other things, to deflection, a process that does not lead to a polarity reversal, although it contributes to a reduction in the dipole component of the field. Most likely, these processes are caused by currents in the Earth’s liquid core, such as the movement of the true magnetic pole.

The true magnetic pole, the vertical magnetic lines of force on the earth’s surface, used to be in Canada and is now moving to Siberia. The geomagnetic poles created by the magnetic dipole are practically stationary. This is very good, because if they had moved, perhaps most of Siberia would have been under the aurora oval. And as you know, the link under it works very poorly. But thank God, only the true magnetic poles are changing.

— For a long time, scientists could not predict earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Is there any development in this direction?

– Negativity, until scientists have the necessary information to predict seismic events. There were just a few random guesses, but it’s not a system.

Many say: “Well, how? Animals sense the messengers, but why don’t we? But so far it is. By the way, California and Japan are covered with all kinds of equipment, and at the same time, they always miss strong earthquakes.

I emphasize that we are talking about a short-term forecast of events. With a long-term forecast, the situation is more optimistic.

Why can’t you react to animals?

Well, let’s imagine the situation. If you suddenly noticed that a cat, dog, cow behaved in an unusual way, what can you say based on this? Maybe the cat, dog or cow is sick. Or maybe something is coming. when is it coming? where is it coming from? What size? Which direction should it run? This can no longer be said.

Still, it is necessary to call the messengers. And there are many enthusiasts engaged in this business. I was one of them.

– And if you take the volcanoes, is the same for the messengers?

Yes, it’s the same with volcanoes. Although here, at least, the problem with the place of action is resolved. Indeed, signs of readiness for the explosion can be noticed. But it’s still impossible to say exactly when that will happen. However, I also know of one or two successful prediction cases. Still, these are isolated cases. Science is still at the very beginning of its journey.

Why is the hypothesis of global warming due to CO2 emissions as a result of human activities questionable, What will happen to satellites if the magnetic poles shift, Is it possible to predict earthquakes and volcanic eruptions in an interview with Gazeta? .Ru, said the head of the Intergeospheric Processes Institute of the Physics Laboratory of the Earth Physics Institute. O.Yu. Schmidt RAS, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Sergey Shalimov.



Source: Gazeta

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