In Spain, BBVA Private Banking presented its economic and market forecasts. Experts explain it 2023 will be the year of recovery for global financial marketsAlthough it still presents itself as a very complex year in terms of economic activity. Equities inherently have the potential to recoup accumulated losses in 2022 in a relatively short period of time, while declines in fixed income income will need more time to recover, but 2023 will be much more favorable for this asset.
BBVA Research notes 2022 growth revised upwards in almost all geographies and therefore, while the risks remain, it represents a better starting point to start the year 2023. In the case of Spain, growth will be 1.2% for next year, and growth will accelerate to 3.4% in 2024, once some uncertainties affecting families and businesses are removed.
Regarding Europe, Sonsoles Castillo, Chief Economist of Economic and Financial Analysis at BBVA Researchguesses further advanced during the economic slowdown With the impact of the energy crisis, the eurozone’s GDP may thus de facto stagnate in 2023 compared to the 3.2% growth in 2022.
in the United StatesSonsoles points out Castillo, The technical recession caused by the monetary tightening necessary to fight inflation may come a little later, thus GDP growth in 2023 will be slightly positive compared to 1.9% in 2022. In China, growth can be expected to increase from 3.6% in 2022 to 5% in 2023.
in relation to inflation, Rafael Doménech, head of BBVA Research Economic Analysis, also explains that it has peaked in the US. However, there is more doubt in Europe. It is waiting for the coming months to confirm the first signs of the decline in inflation. While the decline in core inflation was slower, the better performance of the energy component explains this moderation.
energy and oil
Same way, Álvaro Manteca, Head of Strategy and Roberto Hernanz, Head of Markets BBVA Private Banking in spain, to warn The evolution that raw materials can take in 2023, especially energeticcontinues to be one of the biggest risks of the coming months. In this sense, they explain that a significant part of the current disinflationary spiral is based on the decline in oil and natural gas prices. In order for inflation to continue its downward trend in the coming months, oil prices must stay away from the maximum levels recorded in the summer months.
market evolution
Concerning the markets, Álvaro Manteca explains that 2023 will be the year of fixed income, although variable income will improve, It has the potential to outperform stocks. Roberto Hernanz assures us that uncertainty regarding the economic cooling regarding variable income, especially in the first half of 2023, advises us to remain calm when betting strongly on Variable Income.
mega trends
experts say While 2022 has benefited other sectors and investment styles, investing in megatrends should remain relevant.because many of the trends identified are expected to see massive growth in the future, and companies in these areas will predictably show good improvement in sales and profits.
Source: Informacion
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