BBVA Research has increased its growth forecast for 2023 for the Valencian Community by 0.3 points. The research service confirmed that the increase in GDP will be 4.3% as predicted this year, while it will stay at 1% next year. This is a slight improvement over what was originally anticipated. By 2024, the situation will improve again and there will be a recovery of up to 3.4%. All in a context predicted by BBVA Research tourism will lose momentum and it will be the sector that attracts the economy..
The latest report made public by the research service confirms that Spain’s GDP will rise to 4.6% by 2022. more dynamic consumption behavior. Regarding 2023, the growth forecast has been revised upwards by 2%, with Spain’s GDP growing by 1.2%, mostly thanks to the good work of the autonomous communities linked to construction and exports.
The report highlights that after the very strong recovery in tourism last year, destinations in Spain are already close to pre-crisis occupancy levels. However, data for the second half is already showing less momentum and tourism is expected to lose momentum after that due to low disposable income in origin markets.
This forecast, if fulfilled, will have a negative impact on the Valencian Community. However, thanks to the recovery of the European economy from the second quarter of 2023 and increasing certainty about the cost of energy, There will be acceleration in industrial activities and exports of goods.This could cause GDP growth across the region to remain at 1% despite expectations for a bad start to the year.
Basque Country, Navarra and Galicia leading the upward revisions (+0.5 percentage points), followed by the rest of the north, Catalonia and the Valencian Community. All of this has been facilitated by the gradual recovery of European demand, the resolution of bottlenecks and the reduction of uncertainty.
The lower expected contribution of private consumption and foreign tourism to national GDP in 2023 justifies downward revisions in the islands, Community of Madrid, Region of Murcia, Castilla-La Mancha and Andalusia.
BBVA Research confident growth to reach 3.4% by 2024. In this case, the revival of New Generation funds, more certainty, lower inflation and increase in household income will support more dynamism in the economy. He insists this momentum will be greater in the communities with the greatest weight in the industry. On the contrary, tourist communities will experience less growth once the influx normalizes.
Apart from those in tourism, the report warns: Another risk is inflation.may remain high for the next few months. Wages are rising, but before the pre-pandemic purchasing power is restored and therefore the consolidation of the revenue deal will be key for future developments.
Source: Informacion
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