The French right is caught between extremism and apathy

After getting the support of 42% of fans last weekend, Ciotti starts out as a favorite In the second round, the result will be announced on Sunday afternoon. However, a surprise (34%) from Retailleau cannot be overlooked. Whatever the final foresight, little will change in the political and ideological lines of the LR, which is shrouded in clear obscurity. national decline Although it remains the French party, which failed to qualify for the second round in the 2017 or 2022 presidential elections. larger municipal and regional implantation.

“I’m proud to be on the right”

“We should be proud that we are right, we should be proud of our history,” said Ciotti, 57, at a rally attended by some 300 supporters, mostly gray-haired, at the party’s headquarters in Paris on Thursday. said. Close to former president Nicolas Sarkozy, who has been a national MP for over 15 years in a constituency in the Alpes-Maritimes, a flirtatious, wealthy region with an aging population on the Côte d’Azur, “Right without complexes”.

since you set foot National Assembly, called for more prisons to be built, deport more immigrants In an irregular situation or from birth, the right to land that allows to acquire French citizenship will cease. These positions allowed him to win the sympathy of a radical base. In fact, Ciotti was a finalist in the right-wing primaries to choose the presidential candidate last year. Subsequently, an anti-Ciotti front opened up by many sectors of the party that considered itself too radical served to win Valérie Pécresse, who had failed miserably in the Élysée race.

A year later, Ciotti appears determined to take his revenge by being elected chairman of the party. However, his nepotism was undermined by the emergence of a preliminary criminal investigation against him. allegedly had fictitious jobs as deputy deputy from an emotional ex-partner. A case with similarities to the fictitious work of the ex-prime minister’s wife François FillonThis is why his candidacy in the 2017 presidential election collapsed. relationshipThe Fillons were later criminally convicted.

Win back Le Pen voters

Retailleau, his 62-year-old rival and chairman of the LR group in the Senate, wants to take advantage of this alleged situation. corruption case – one-tenth of the Republican right, crushed by the weight of multiple Fillon lawsuits, Sarkozy and collaborators – to surprise. If I had been successful, little would have changed. drift right of this formation whose electorate was reduced to crumbs presidential (6%) and legislative (10%) due to mid-right bites macron and Le Pen’s far right.

against same-sex marriage and the fact that it contains abortion right According to the constitution, Retailleau is part of a right even more conservative than Ciotti’s. The main inconsistency between them is due to bad personal relationships; this is common in a game where knives fly when any leader has his back turned. they can’t agree on Name of LR candidate for 2027 presidential electionMacron will not be able to appear, and this gives them a small window of opportunity. When Ciotti bets Laurent WauquiezRetailleau, Sarkozy’s former minister and current head of the Lyon region, would have preferred to wait a while.

Instead, both agree on experimentation strategies. win back those voters who let them be seduced by the song of the sirens Le Pen or Zemmour. “The natural reflex of many right-wing leaders is to try to talk to Le Pen’s voters. This contributed to Sarkozy’s success in the 2007 presidential election, and they have since been trying to reproduce the same strategy, even though it no longer works for them,” explains a researcher at Sciences Po Paris and Republican right expert Emilien Houard-Vial.

a european trend

As a result, the Republican right not only pushed its postulates to the right, it also opposed anything. alliance with Macron. The centrist leader and Sarkozy demanded this coalition that would stabilize the weakened Executive by not having an absolute majority in power. National Assembly. Both Ciotti and Retailleau said: “No means no”. This formation, which has 62 deputies (out of a total of 577 deputies), hinge He is a judge in the Parliament and the Senate. His position is predicted to be key to the future of the legislature. Although Ciotti and Retailleau say they want to form a “solid but responsible opposition,” motion of reprimand “if the country needs it” with the rest of the opposition (extreme right and left).

LR leaders “want protect your party’s identity Houard-Vial argues that the majority of his voters oppose Macron, although he goes to Macronism and to a lesser extent to the far right. This trend is similar to what other conservative formations in Europe have experienced. PP in spain, Forza Italy Also in Italy FPÖ in Austria and even in some sectors of the world CDU and csu in Germany.

“Between different parties of the right mainstream, LR is one of the most penetrating. far right ideas“, but in very few cases reached electoral or post-election agreements. National Regrouping It highlights Houard-Vial from Le Pen. A paradox favored by the French presidential model and its double-round electoral system.