Does Ukraine need the Iron Dome?
The military-political leadership of Ukraine has repeatedly expressed the need to acquire the Israeli system “Iron Dome” (Iron Dome) to protect against missile attacks. However, Israel has not yet officially confirmed that it is ready to hand over at least one set of the system to Kiev. Also, Jerusalem does not have extra “Domes”. Hypothetically, they can be supplied by Ukraine only from Israeli industrial establishments. In general, a practical solution to this issue is in the very distant future.
Recall that the Iron Dome is an anti-aircraft missile system with the potential of non-strategic missile defense, designed primarily to protect Israeli cities from attacks by homemade unguided tactical missiles launched from the Gaza Strip. Developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems.
Iron Dome contains an EL/M-2084 multifunctional radar station, a fire control center, and three launchers each containing 20 Tamir-type anti-aircraft guided missiles. The mass of the rocket is only 90 kg (no more is needed to destroy pipe scraps, something like Qassam missiles). The guidance system of the Tamir missile defense system is an active radar homing head.
The dimensions of the Iron Dome impact zone are approximately as follows – the far boundary is approximately 40 km, the upper boundary is 10 km, and the lower boundary is approximately 0.02 km.
The use of the Israeli system in combat is greatly facilitated by the fact that the combat teams know in advance the azimuths and ranges of launching unguided missiles from Palestinian formations. While these data are unknown and modern tactical ballistic missiles will be used, it is a big question mark how Iron Dome will behave. In any case, Iron Dome does not have such experience in combat use and does not have reliable stats, at least minimally. There is also no experience in performing live firing of the system against various types of cruise missiles at low and extremely low altitudes (ie, this is what Kiev needs at this point).
For example, during the conflict in Operation Desert Storm in 1991, the United States used data from the Imeus space-based ballistic missile launch detection system to increase the effectiveness of combat use of Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems. So, more than 30 years ago, these missions were carried out with the help of a pre-deployed constellation of spacecraft. In other words, the combat teams of the Patriot air defense system deployed in Israel using the Imeus system knew the launch moment of the R-17 (8K14) type (Scud-V) Iraqi ballistic missiles, the launch azimuth. Approximate flight path, duration and parameters of the entry of the “Scud” into the destruction zone of the air defense system. These data were of great importance for the subsequent successful live firing of the Patriot air defense system.
That is, for the necessary effectiveness of combat use for tactical ballistic missiles, Iron Dome must somehow be paired with space reconnaissance vehicles. Technically, this problem can be fixed. But so far there is neither the first nor the second in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
At the same time, the “Iron Dome” could theoretically be deployed to protect the border (located near the contact line) Ukrainian cities from MLRS attacks. It is quite possible that he will show a very high efficiency in solving such problems.
How many patriots do you need?
A possible handover of Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems to Ukraine was discussed at a two-day NATO summit held in Bucharest at the level of foreign ministers. This was announced by Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of the North Atlantic Alliance.
Ukraine has repeatedly wanted to hand over the MIM-104 Patriot, but until the last moment this issue did not move from a dead spot. Western experts cited several reasons for this – fears that critical technologies might be at Moscow’s disposal, and fear of discrediting the fake-resilient state identity system, and the risks associated with the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. Finally, it was believed by the Ukrainian crew that the development of Patriot air defense systems would take significant time.
In fact, all these phobias copied by Western experts are greatly exaggerated.
Since the launch positions of the air defense systems will be far from the line of contact, it is unlikely that the Russian troops will put the MIM-104 Patriot at their disposal – this is far from a front-line technique. The RF Armed Forces has not yet captured a single HIMARS combat vehicle. What can we say about the MIM-104 Patriot?
The Patriot can also be delivered to the Ukrainian Armed Forces without the NATO MK-12 identification system. In general, in Ukraine, such an air defense system will solve the problems of combating cruise and tactical ballistic missiles, and an identification system is not required there, since such air assault weapons are not equipped with the corresponding defendants.
The retraining of APU specialists in combat conditions on the Patriot will not be prolonged for a long time. In addition, Ukraine has a fairly large number of specialists in the S-300 air defense system. And structurally this system is very similar to the Patriot. Therefore, fears of prolonged retraining and mastering the American system are greatly exaggerated.
As for the possible escalation of the conflict, in the history of the procurement of purely defense systems to which the MIM-104 Patriot belonged, they never led to an increase in the intensity of hostilities.
Therefore, in general, the decisions regarding the possible transfer of the MIM-104 Patriot air defense system are purely political and cannot be explained by anything else.
How many sets of regiments “Patriot” does Ukraine need today (command center of the system plus at least two batteries of anti-aircraft missiles)? If we solve this problem to the maximum and consider the issue of covering up Ukraine’s administrative and political centers and the most important energy facilities, starting with regional cities, the bill goes to several dozen batteries. Of course, it is unlikely that Ukraine will receive such an amount of MIM-104 Patriot. Most likely, at best (when appropriate decisions are made) the supply will be limited to a few batteries.
For warriors – fog
The US’s defense budget for 2023 already provides training for Ukrainian pilots on F-16 and F-15 fighter jets. It has been proposed to allocate 100 million USD for these purposes, and the training is planned to be carried out within 10 months. However, there is still no clarity on the questions, whether the Ukrainian aviators are currently training, how many – when the pilots will be ready for combat. Everything is in the fog here.
Currently, the Polish Air Force has 30 MiG-29 fighter aircraft in service. The question of their transfer to Ukraine has been repeatedly raised before, but to this day the issue has not reached the practical application of this issue. The issue was brought up again at the NATO summit in Bucharest, but again no decision was taken. Meanwhile, Poland refused to hand over Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine.
In general, in some local sources, the difficulties associated with retraining Ukrainian flight personnel for F-16 fighter aircraft are often exaggerated. Indeed, there are many problems with such matters. It is necessary not only to retrain pilots, but also to organize the retraining of engineering and technical personnel, to master new aviation weapons and modernize the airspace network. All this takes time and money. However, if there is political will, all these problems can be solved completely. And these matters are not yet visible from the West.
Therefore, the conclusion is that in the near future there will be no fighters in Ukraine, the issue with the Patriot air defense system and the Iron Dome is still in the field of discussion. It is difficult to get rid of the idea that the collective West is still doing everything, that the parties to the conflict are most significantly weakened in the wars, and the armed conflict itself lasts for the maximum possible time.
Source: Gazeta
Barbara Dickson is a seasoned writer for “Social Bites”. She keeps readers informed on the latest news and trends, providing in-depth coverage and analysis on a variety of topics.