It is no longer a secret that summers in Europe are – and will continue to be – drier and hotter. This summer has been good proof of that. In fact, excessive dryness and most heat wave In the second half of the 21st century, it will become increasingly intense, especially in southern EuropeThe statements made by Elfatih Eltahir, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), to the portal, as advances. physics.org.
According to Eltahir, climate models predict dry summers in the south of the continent, as well as in the Mediterranean basin. hot spots The hotspot is one of the regions where droughts caused by climate change will have the greatest impact.
With this panorama, heat waves, an extreme phenomenon that Europe has experienced not only this summer, but also in 2020, 2019, 2018, 2015 and 2003, take on special significance, as the MIT professor recalls. A particularly urgent phenomenon in Southern Europe. But why?
The role of soil moisture
This region is located at the transition between the dry subtropics – the Sahara desert – and the relatively humid mid-latitudes. high summer temperatures tend to cause precipitation to evaporate quickly. This implies that soil moisture depends on whether the spring rains are consistent enough to withstand the summer.
“A dry spring in Europe (like 2022) results in dry soils in late spring and early summer.. This lack of surface water limits surface evaporation during the summer months,” continues Eltahir.
This has two consequences: on the one hand, Since there is no water on the ground to evaporate, solar energy gradually increases the temperature of the air.. On the other hand, water ingress into the air layers near the surface is reduced, which creates drier air and minimizes the possibility of precipitation.
“Unified, these two effects increase the likelihood of heat waves and droughts‘, adds Elfatih Eltahir.
However, as PhD student Alexandre Tuel emphasizes, spring precipitation is not the only factor. “It takes a spark to ignite the fuel. In Europe and elsewhere, that spark is provided by large-scale atmospheric dynamics.”
To explain this reflection, Tuel gives the example of the arrival of an anticyclone in an area with very dry soil. “This coincidence will create a rapid rise in surface temperature and lead to a heat wave that can last for weeks,” he says.
This is exactly why southern Europe and the Mediterranean region are favorite areas for heatwaves due to the vulnerability of spring precipitation.
Spring rains will continue to decrease
“This will play an increasingly important role in the future, because Spring precipitation is expected to decrease, making scorching summers more likely in this corner of the world,” adds Tuel.
Tuel acknowledges that floods are a more difficult phenomenon to predict, as they are influenced by a wide variety of factors and also depend heavily on atmospheric dynamics.
“What is almost certain is that with warming the water content in the atmosphere increases. So if the dynamics are suitable for precipitation, many may fall in a warmer climate. For example, last year it caused floods in Germany. unprecedented heavy rains made more likely by climate change,” he said. Finishing Tuel.
Reference article: https://phys.org/news/2022-10-europe-vulnerable.html
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