The Quantum Challenge and the Guardrails of Cryptography
Impulse in quantum technology is pushing cryptographic keys toward the edge. Even with systems that use double authentication, such as a message sent to a mobile device to confirm access, quantum computers could one day decrypt existing keys with little warning. IT security experts continue to urge calm while acknowledging the early stages of this transition, even as a storm of uncertainty looms over the horizon. At a recent Notaries Technology Conference, the mood ranged from cautious optimism to collective anxiety about a future full of technical unknowns and unclear legal guidance. Luis Jimenez Muñoz, deputy general manager at the National Cryptology Center, offered a measured reassurance: there is currently no quantum computer capable of breaking established cryptographic codes, but developments must be watched closely and are not to be ignored.
Notarial work sits at a critical juncture where professional stress grows as the landscape shifts. During the forum, the deputy general director of the National Cryptology Center, Luis Jimenez Muñoz, spoke with the headline phrase Quantum computing and its impact on information security. He stressed that no quantum computer today can crack current cryptographic encodings, while noting that vigilance will be needed as time passes, with a perspective that this evolution may take decades. Still, the pace of progress could accelerate if quantum advances align with Moore’s law, which predicts rapid increases in processing power roughly every two years. The sense in the room was that a shift could come sooner than expected if these trends converge.
The Semiconductor Outlook for 2024
After a challenging 2023, the chip sector began to carve out a stronger forecast for 2024. The Semiconductor Industry Association projects a robust global recovery, with an anticipated market expansion of about 13 percent to reach roughly 588 billion dollars. A major driver is the memory segment, expected to approach 130 billion in 2024, reflecting growth well above the prior year’s levels. Regions such as the Americas and Asia Pacific are projected to lead with double-digit gains, underscoring a broad-based rebound across markets.
Yet the industry faces a potential recalibration from quantum disruption. The current chip ecosystem remains highly concentrated, with just a couple of players able to produce the most advanced three-nanometer nodes. Asia currently dominates global chip production, while the United States and Japan work to maintain momentum. Building a fully capable new manufacturing footprint would require substantial investment, around twenty billion dollars, and the emergence of quantum disruption could redirect the entire trajectory. At the conference, Pedro Pintó, head of New Programs at Hispasat, outlined Europe’s Caramuel project — a secure satellite-based distribution system for quantum keys — and called for router initiatives that securely handle quantum communication data to extend satellite quantum key distribution across networks. The goal is to create a seamless, end-to-end quantum key ecosystem that complements existing infrastructure and broadens reach, leaving attendees intrigued by the practical physics of this union.
Across a world where randomness grows, the transition and coexistence with silicon-based systems remain uncertain. Ongoing industrial investments in chip manufacturing are expected to continue for several more years unless a disruption concentrates power in too few hands or renders older processes obsolete too quickly.
A Technological Opportunity for Notaries
Ulises Arranz, Minister of Innovation and Quantum Technology at AMETHIC, views the moment as a golden opportunity to spur the Spanish quantum ecosystem. He argues for a clear national strategy and a strong emphasis on education to prepare for what lies ahead. Enric Hernández, Director of Security and Innovation at the Notary Technology Center, asserts that notaries must stay at the technological forefront and are actively researching quantum cryptography as a priority. The goal is to translate these developments into practical protections for sensitive information and stronger trust in electronic processes.
José Alberto Marín, Dean of the Notary College of Catalonia, closed the meeting by reminding attendees of the duty to safeguard citizens in times of disruption. He emphasized that notaries have long protected data through physical and intellectual safeguards, and with electronic protocols now in play, the requirement for rigorous computer security has grown even more essential. The message underlined a simple truth: evolving threats demand an evolving commitment to information security, with notaries playing a central role in maintaining public confidence.