If you read and listen to some media, then humanity is threatened with starvation due to the blockade of the Black Sea ports of Ukraine. We are talking about 20-22 million tons of grain that must be mined before the new harvest begins, otherwise millions of people on planet Earth will become kirdyk. In fact, in this “case”, as it usually happens, partial truth mixes a little of everything, including deliberate manipulation and banal hype on a hot topic. Let’s try to understand.
Let’s start with the truth. Ukraine, together with Russia, indeed exported (approximately equally) about 30% of the world’s wheat, about 70% of sunflowers, more than 15% of barley before the outbreak of hostilities, and was also a major player in a number of other countries. was playing a role. Food types. The destabilization of such a large market share (both from the blockade of ports and from sanctions on Russian exporters and carriers) is a really big problem. This is called a stress test.
For some countries the situation may become critical. So, last year Somalia bought up to 90% of wheat from Russia and Ukraine, the Democratic Republic of the Congo – up to 80%, Madagascar – 70%. At the same time, it specializes in the supply of grain to Ukraine, North Africa and Pakistan (also to China), but for him the situation is quite comfortable in terms of supplying all kinds of food. It exported certain types of food to countries with a total population of 400 million.
At the same time, 36 countries import more than 50% of the grain consumed from the Black Sea region, namely Russia and Ukraine. Once upon a time, the “Arab Spring” broke out precisely against the background of rising food prices (I remember at that time Russia in particular temporarily stopped the supply of grain to Egypt, which is now one of our main buyers, 80% of the grain imports Russia and Ukraine comes from). The grain market and the food market in general are strongly monopolized. So it is variable. Thus, only seven countries provide 86% of world wheat exports. A similar situation exists with the supply of corn, soybeans and rice.
Therefore, it is logical that the world’s leading organizations dealing with hunger problems should now raise the alarm. And they say that on the backdrop of the Ukrainian military conflict, the threat of famine could worsen. Yes maybe. Notable enough. But to what extent is not yet clear.
US Secretary of State Blinken recently said that in terms of food shortages, the conflict in Ukraine could affect another 40 million people. But he is an “interested” person to say the least. In particular, to highlight the problem of the blockade of the Black Sea ports as part of the campaign to “dehumanize” the Russian authorities, who were appointed as the sole culprits.
Approximately at this point the bare truth ends and the manipulations begin.
The fact is that the sharp rise in prices for all types of food (one of the main causes of hunger in poor countries) began in the background not on February 24, 2022, but in 2020 (by 75% since then). from a pandemic. Just last year, nearly 193 million people in 53 countries experienced food insecurity. There were 155 million such people a year ago. If we talk directly about hunger, this year, according to UN estimates, 180-185 million people are expected in 41 countries.
There are clear criteria that count as hunger (less than 1,800 calories per day), malnutrition (deficiencies in protein and essential vitamins), and food insecurity (availability of enough safe and nutritious food to support an active and healthy life). Therefore, in the last five months, the number of “unsafe food” has increased by 400 million people, or 40%. However, this sharp increase started before February 24. However, different establishments are starving and malnourished in different numbers, so here’s a complete traveler.
The distribution of numbers in the number of hungry people (estimates for this year) is in the tens of millions: from 180 million to 320 million and more. Is there any “hype” in this? Maybe. Officials who deal with hunger professionally tend to be dramatic. Politicians and media, even more so, making the issue of “20 million tons of grain from Ukraine that will save the world” number one on the agenda. But basically it is the difficulty of counting correctly in poor countries.
At the same time, it is more or less accepted that the main cause of world hunger is not food shortages, but armed conflicts that are driving people into poverty and abject poverty, while destroying food supply and distribution chains. Armed conflicts, including internal conflicts, were the main cause of hunger for nearly 100 million people in 23 countries in 2020. Today, 27 armed conflicts of varying intensity and nature are raging or smoldering in the world. Ukraine is only one of them, although today it is the largest. Yes, even in Europe. In countries like Ethiopia, Afghanistan, South Sudan, Yemen and many more, where the number of people on the starvation line has increased almost sixfold in the last five years, this has been due to constant wars. Last year, the vast majority of the hungry lived in just ten countries: Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Nigeria, Pakistan, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria and Yemen, according to the UN. Except for Pakistan, all of them are either dragged into the toughest internal conflicts or protracted wars with their neighbors.
Another major cause of hunger is climate change (drought or flood), where poor countries are particularly powerless without modern agricultural technologies.
Now about the situation with production and food resources in the world as a whole. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2.8 trillion tons of grain were harvested around the world last year (almost a percent increase over the previous year). 1.5 trillion tons of feed grain were harvested (18 million tons more than 2020). Wheat production is estimated to be 777 million tons. Guess for yourself what percentage of 20 million Ukrainians. Let’s move on.
FAO’s forecast for global grain stocks by the end of the season in 2022 is 856 million tons, an increase of 5.2 million tons from the previous estimate. FAO also indicates that the ratio of global grain stocks to consumption will remain unchanged at 29.9% from 2020/21, indicating a relatively comfortable level of supply. In particular, it is predicted that world wheat stocks will increase by 4.2% compared to the first levels of the current season. World coarse grain stocks will grow 2.4% above the level at the start of the season. The increase in stocks in Ukraine mainly due to the 5.5% increase in world corn stocks and the cessation of exports (yes, that’s why). At the same time, world grain trade in the 2021/22 season will be 473 million tons, which is 3.7 million tons more than last month’s forecast, but 1.2% below the 2020/21 record level. As we can see, the closure of ports in Ukraine hardly affected the overall trade picture. On the contrary, the estimation was raised as there was a higher than expected export from Russia, mainly from Egypt, Iran and Turkey (which does not comply with the sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation). It also increased the supply of grain from Argentina.
Only the global wheat production forecast for this year is slightly down, but will reach an impressive 782 million tons (which has Russian – about 120 million or higher, export potential of up to 25-35 million). Including 50 million tons will be collected in the USA (5 million tons more than last year). In Europe, the estimation of wheat production was increased to 139.5 million tons. In Asia, production is also expected to increase slightly in India and Pakistan despite the drought. But the consequences of the drought will hit North Africa. For feed grains, yields in leading producing countries will also be above average. Brazil, for example, will have a record maize crop in 2022. Despite the drought in Argentina, the crop is also expected to be above average. Even in South Africa, maize production will be above the annual average despite the floods.
In other words, when you read in the media that there are 10 weeks of grain left on Earth and it’s all because of military actions in Ukraine, divide it by ten. Or better yet, multiply. Because there is food on Earth. And there’s a lot of it. There are no production prerequisites for starvation on the planet.
There are certain conditions – military conflicts, the collapse of entire states into poverty and complete incompetence, the opacity and injustice of the rules of world trade, among other things, dooming entire continents to eternal backwardness and inequality. In recent years, there has been a tremendous rise in global inflation after the world’s leading countries (from where it spreads across the planet) pumped their economies with trillions of “printed” dollars, yen, euros and yuan. Added this year, yes, is the destabilization of the grain-producing region and the sharp collapse of its supply chains. As one of the factors, but not the only one.
Finally, there is the underlying greed and unwillingness of the leading world powers to feed some eternally hungry and eternally unlucky Africans for free (“the crocodile doesn’t get caught, the coconut doesn’t grow” – you can’t sing or more precisely say it). Especially to feed those 150-180 million hungry people, in general, a “poor” 20-30 billion dollars is needed. This is ten times less than spent on any war. But this is, as Boris Abramych Berezovsky put it, considering that in such situations everyone and everything spins here, “this is another money”: food aid organizations operate at best in 100-200 times smaller amounts.
At the same time, the Ukrainian “case” will of course lead to significant changes in the agricultural markets in the 3-5 year horizon. After the current short-term turmoil, it will take measures to reduce dependency on such a “volatile” region, not just the West, but Russia in particular. By analogy, steps are being taken to “get rid of dependence” on oil and gas. There will be a redistribution of cultivated land, including alternative calorie sources to wheat. For example, soybeans, peas or lentils (calorie content 1.2-1.4 times higher than wheat). And corn with a yield twice as high as wheat with the same calorie content (there was some truth in Khrushchev’s well-known attempts). Such a global restructuring may take the same 3-5 years. But even then, there will be no starvation due to 20 million tons of Ukrainian grain stuck in ports and elevators. And if so, then in countries where the entire “civilized world” traditionally does not care. After all, this is not in Europe, and not in the West, where everything is in harmony with food: a third is traditionally wasted (in our country, by the way). It’s “somewhere out there”. But of course you can make noise.
The author expresses his personal opinion, which may not coincide with the editors’ position.