A potential peak in the ruble’s strength against the dollar could materialize as spring draws to a close. This view emerges from a discussion with Alexey Mikheev, an analyst and investment strategist at VTB broker My Investments, who shared his assessment with Lentoy.ru.
Industry watcher Mikheev stays optimistic about the ruble’s trajectory over the next couple of months.
He notes that quarterly additional income tax (ATT) payments will be layered onto monthly mining taxes (MET) obligations at the end of March and in April. He estimates that exporters will contribute about ₽700 billion under the mineral extraction tax framework. Additionally, the February tax period looms, with preliminary projections suggesting the final payment for the prior year and the advance payment for the first quarter of 2024 could total ₽400 billion and ₽500 billion, respectively.
“We should see the ruble reach a local peak of strength toward the end of March,” Mikheev explains.
According to him, the dollar-to-ruble rate might approach the lower end of a 87–92.5 range by that time.
Still, the analyst believes there is room for even stronger ruble performance if conditions align favorably.
Previously, Denis Perepelitsa, a Candidate of Economic Sciences and Director of the Federal Center for Financial Literacy Methodology, as well as an Associate Professor at the Department of Global Financial Markets and Fintech at the Russian University of Economics. GV Plekhanov, provided a forecast to socialbites.ca that March could bring notable volatility in the ruble exchange rate, with the dollar trading between approximately 85 and 92 rubles.
The discussion also touched on broader sentiment about the ruble’s sensitivity to political and macroeconomic developments, including assessments regarding the potential impact of high-profile political events on currency moves.
Overall, the market narrative centers on a temporary tightening of the ruble’s path—driven by tax inflows, export dynamics, and seasonal payment cycles—while still leaving room for fluctuations as March concludes and new data points emerge.
[Source attribution: socialbites.ca]