European nations could rethink their LNG strategy in light of Russia, potentially increasing imports from the United States and Qatar. This perspective comes from an energy economics expert at a center focused on strategic studies, who explains the forces shaping Europe’s gas market and the potential paths for diversification.
The analysis suggests Europe has the technical capacity to reduce or pause Russian LNG deliveries by leaning on alternative suppliers. In 2022, Russia provided about 17 million tons of LNG to Europe, a small share of the global LNG market at roughly 4%. The argument is that European buyers could reallocate those volumes by boosting shipments from the United States, Qatar, and other exporters, thereby shifting regional market shares without triggering a dramatic energy shortfall.
Under this reallocation, European gas prices would likely rise during periods when shipments from Russia fall. Part of the effect would involve rerouting flows away from Asia’s premium LNG markets, redirecting cargoes to meet European needs. Yet the scenario is neither simple nor highly probable, and it would face efficiency and logistical hurdles that could temper its realization.
A broader European halt to Russian pipeline gas is also viewed as unlikely. The European gas network, built over decades, does not yet offer full redundancy to replace Russia’s supply with existing infrastructure alone, creating a practical barrier to a complete substitution in the near term.
On March 11, European energy policymakers stressed that European buyers should avoid renewing LNG contracts with Russia. The aim is to create space in the market for trusted suppliers and to diversify and secure energy supplies for member states, while reducing reliance on a single source of LNG.