The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has adjusted its projection for Russia’s 2024 GDP growth, lifting it from 1 percent to 2.5 percent. Analysts anticipate a further 1.5 percent expansion in 2025. This update was reported by TASS and reflected in the organization’s recent briefing. [citation]
In its explanation for the revision, the EBRD highlighted that Russia’s GDP rose by 3.6 percent in the previous year, supported by a surge in defense sector production and stronger trade links with China and other partners. The revision underlines a more optimistic view of near-term activity, while still noting risks on the horizon. [citation]
Forecasts from other research bodies have echoed a cautious optimism. In a conversation with socialbites.ca, Konstantin Tuzov of the Institute of Applied Economic Research at the Presidential Academy offered an outlook that places average annual GDP growth over the next three years around 2 percent. He emphasized that final consumption expenditure would be a key driver, alongside ongoing structural factors shaping domestic demand. [citation]
Recently, discussions at the Ministry of Economic Development touched on signals of overheating in the Russian economy. Observers are watching indicators such as inflation pressures, credit growth, and capacity utilization to gauge whether demand is catching up with supply. [citation]
Meanwhile, monetary policy actions have drawn attention, with the Central Bank signaling a readiness to adjust policy instruments as needed. The policy stance remains focused on balancing growth with price stability, reflecting the tensions between expansionary impulses and macroeconomic prudence. [citation]