Prices for chocolate in Russia are not expected to rise by more than 15% in the near term. This forecast was conveyed to socialbites.ca by Vyacheslav Cheglov, a Doctor of Economics and a professor at the Fundamental Department of Trade Policy at the Russian Economic University named after G. V. Plekhanov. Cheglov commented on the shutdown of Africa’s largest cocoa bean processing plants and the resulting price pressures, offering context on how the Russian market might respond in the coming months.
According to the economist, wholesale and retail channels in Russia will manage the transition gradually. Retailers do not want to provoke a shock reaction from consumers, so any price increases are likely to be incremental. He also noted that market participants are watching the upcoming cocoa harvest closely. Although futures markets have shown nervous activity, historical experience indicates that production disruptions can be temporary, and the market often adjusts as new harvests come in.
Cheglov suggested that manufacturers might respond by tightening portions or reducing the cocoa content in some products. In the higher-priced chocolate segment, price increases could exceed 15 percent, and shifts in packaging might accompany these changes. He emphasized that the consumer base for luxury chocolate tends to be affluent and selective, which can influence how price adjustments are implemented and perceived.
In Cheglov’s view, real chocolate and confectionery products containing it have long been considered a delicacy in Russia and are not accessible to everyone. He explained that the mass-market chocolate, such as standard milk chocolate, often contains a relatively small amount of cocoa beans and a large share of flavorings and additives, which can affect both taste and price perception for everyday buyers.
Despite rising costs, the expert did not anticipate a drop in chocolate consumption in Russia. Chocolate is still seen as socially important, and consumer demand remains resilient even amid price increases. Cheglov suggested that the mass-market consumer may turn to chocolate bars with a broader array of flavorings or look for alternative dessert options, potentially slightly altering traditional recipes. He added that stores typically limit price increases rather than freeze them, ensuring affordability remains a consideration while margins are preserved.
Since the start of 2024, global cocoa bean prices have surged by more than 50% as African chocolate factories shut down operations. This macro backdrop has amplified concerns about supply reliability and price stability, underscoring why any price movement in Russia is likely to be gradual and measured, rather than abrupt. The situation reflects a broader trend where international production disruptions translate into domestic pricing tactics and consumer choices.
Earlier in the year, socialbites.ca reported on the pricing landscape for chocolate products in Russia, highlighting how market dynamics, consumer demand, and international supply conditions intersect to shape what shoppers pay in stores.