The ruble is expected to strengthen next week, trading between 88.5 and 91.5 per dollar. This outlook was shared with socialbites.ca by Alexander Bakhtin, an investment strategist at BCS World of Investments. The shift comes as the central bank continues to tighten policy and as financial conditions evolve for businesses and households across Russia.
Bakhtin explains that the 200 basis point rise in the key rate to 15 percent, implemented in October, is contributing to the currency’s resilience. Higher rates tend to attract savers and reduce the appetite for imports, given the higher borrowing costs, which in turn lowers the demand for foreign currency. A second factor supporting the ruble is the sustained conversion of exporters’ foreign exchange earnings in the domestic market. Even with elevated oil prices in earlier months, the inflow of foreign currency could see a pause around mid‑November as market dynamics adjust.
The strategist notes that the overall effect could still be positive for the ruble if export earnings are converted and recycled domestically, reinforcing the currency’s foundation. However, a potential reversal could occur if crude prices retreat in November, putting some pressure on the ruble toward the end of the year. Higher energy costs appeared to support the currency previously, but shifts in price and demand can create volatility that investors closely watch.
As the tax season approaches, Bakhtin observes that some companies may opt to sell additional foreign currency to meet obligations, which could provide further support for the ruble. Yet the scale of this impact is unlikely to match the surge seen in late October, given expectations that tax payments this month will be at least 15 percent lower. This nuance matters for anyone tracking near‑term currency movements and the balance of supply and demand in the domestic market.
Closing figures from the Moscow Stock Exchange on Friday showed the dollar around 90 rubles, the euro near 97.82 rubles, and the yuan around 12,469 rubles. These snapshots illustrate the ongoing tension between domestic monetary policy, external price signals, and market expectations—a dynamic environment in which strategic investors weigh policy shifts, commodity price trajectories, and potential tax‑driven flows. According to Newspapers.Ru, market participants often reassess during weeks of policy announcements, adding another layer of consideration for those weighing foreign exchange exposure.
Looking back, analysts had previously suggested a lower range for the dollar in the mid‑80s to mid‑80s ruble per dollar area, reflecting a different set of assumptions about inflation, growth, and the balance of payments. The current scenario highlights how policy normalization, export activity, and external energy markets interact to shape short‑term currency trajectories, while investors remain attentive to evolving data and central bank communications.