An interview with Artem Tuzov, who serves as the Executive Director of the Capital Markets Department at IC Univer Capital, was conducted with the news agency Hitting the Primer. In that conversation, Tuzov shared his outlook on when the ruble might experience weakness against major currencies and what factors could drive that shift in the near term.
According to his assessment, the early part of the second quarter of 2022 could mark the onset of renewed pressure on the ruble. He explained that the timing would reflect a combination of evolving global market dynamics and the ongoing impact of policy responses. The expert emphasized that external conditions remain a key driver, and sanctions continue to shape the funding and trade environment in ways that could affect the exchange rate in the months ahead. (Source: Hitting the Primer)
Tuzov noted that there may be little point in trying to completely halt a rise in the dollar to the 70 to 75 ruble range because such a move would have adverse effects on budget financing under conditions of restricted imports. In his view, a depreciation episode could, paradoxically, be a stabilizing influence on state revenues by ensuring that fiscal planning keeps pace with current realities rather than chasing an artificially strong currency. He also cautioned that the effects of restrictive measures accumulate over time, potentially reshaping macroeconomic dynamics in a cumulative fashion. (Source: Hitting the Primer)
Other voices in the market have weighed in on the ruble trajectory. Mikhail Kogan, who previously led Analytical Research at the School of Financial Management, stressed that understanding the ruble’s course requires adding a meaningful margin to assess real movements rather than focusing on daily fluctuations. He suggested that a careful adjustment of expectations, in line with broader macroeconomic indicators, can offer a clearer picture of where the currency could head next. (Source: Hitting the Primer)
Additionally, Alexander Potavin, who previously spoke as an analyst, argued that the moment when the ruble shows signs of renewed strength could come soon. He warned that this step might mark the peak of a strengthening phase, after which strategic actions such as timely currency acquisitions could be considered in light of the evolving market context. The discussion pointed to the fact that policy responses and market sentiment both play vital roles in shaping near-term currency movements. (Source: Hitting the Primer)