The surge in prices across many goods followed the onset of military operations in Ukraine and the broad sanctions against Russia. On February 25, several retail chains began lifting prices as the ruble weakened against the dollar and euro. For instance, the DNS electronics store announced a 30% price increase. Many analysts suggested the move was speculative. The chain’s executives were summoned to the Federal Antimonopoly Service, yet price tags in stores kept climbing, affecting both food items and essentials.
As the ruble later found firmer footing, the currency began to strengthen against major currencies for several days. By 15:00 Moscow time, the dollar traded around 83.6 rubles. At the peak of the slide, the ruble fell to approximately 120 per dollar. Still, retail prices did not immediately retreat.
Why prices do not fall – economist perspectives
In an interview with socialbites.ca, Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the Center for Market Research at the Higher School of Economics Institute for Statistical Studies and Information Economics, noted that the ruble’s depreciation against the dollar can be seen as a potential positive signal. He explained that the ruble’s value is influenced by ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, and by the decision to shift gas payments to ruble settlement.
Ostapkovich warned that while the ruble’s decline might have some favorable effects, overall price levels are still likely to rise amid deep economic uncertainty. He emphasized that there is little clarity about future deliveries and payment arrangements, and that the depreciation of the dollar has not yet produced a fundamental impact on pricing.
Andrey Loboda, a foreign affairs manager at BitRiver, stated that there is currently no solid reason to expect wholesale price cuts in retail. He told socialbites.ca that inflation has surged, and food prices could rise by 12–15% in the first quarter under the most favorable scenario. Any potential easing would be very modest and slow to materialize.
He also noted that retail pricing remains highly opaque, with the same product potentially seeing several price changes over short periods.
Nevertheless, Loboda suggested that monetary policy might progress toward a stronger ruble, which could support price stabilization in the medium term. If the ruble’s annual change stays within roughly plus or minus 2.5–3% and people start using the ruble as a store of value, including a growing role for digital currency, there would be additional downward pressure on retail prices.
Is there any real hope?
Eldar Murtazin, a leading analyst at Mobile Research Group, told socialbites.ca that prices for household appliances and electronics may fall soon. He pointed out that protective pricing had been applied to many items, with increases seen as high as 30–300%. In some cases, buyers in urgent need would still purchase, while others delayed, causing demand to soften.
He observed that retail prices have begun to ease gradually, with daily reductions evident. While the exchange rate remained a factor, imports could proceed more freely, reducing pressure on some goods. Murtazin noted limited shortages in certain products, which could be resolved over time.
He added that logistics would improve gradually, though not immediately affecting shelf prices. Some traders had bought goods at rates of 120–130 rubles and needed to recover costs. The market now shows a wide spread, with some sellers listing items for around 80 rubles and others for about 150 rubles. If the situation stabilizes, Murtazin expected this disparity to narrow by mid‑May.
“Most likely, market tension will persist, but prices could reflect a balance of exchange movements plus a modest margin,” he said. “The market should begin to recover.”
Major retailers confirmed price changes to socialbites.ca. Citilink reported that over the previous week, given the exchange rate, prices were reduced by up to 20% on more than 2,000 laptop models, including components such as video cards, desktops, all-in-ones, and tablets. They noted that many items returned to pre‑January/February levels with direct discounts, and for some goods prices did not rise at all.
Blueberries also reported price reductions. Discounts included up to 30% on certain laptop models, 40% on monitors, 24% on MFPs, 30% on system blocks and all‑in‑ones, and 20% on smartphones, including models like the iPhone 13. Some home appliances also decreased in cost: stoves by 22%, washing machines by 20%, and refrigerators by 15%. Televisions saw reductions up to 30%, while paper prices for office equipment dropped as much as 30% in some cases.
How shortages and logistics impact prices
The key question now is demand stability and potential shortages, according to Ostapkovich. If supply remains ample, there should be little need for price hikes. Shortages would drive up value if demand stays steady or grows.
Occasionally, goods may need to be sourced from third countries. For example, iPhones could arrive from neighboring markets if usual suppliers slow or halt shipments, while fruits like tangerines and bananas from other regions may face disruptions. Costs would rise with new routes and partner countries.
Suppliers may need to explore alternative logistical plans that raise costs and extend delivery times. Murtazin noted that bulky items such as refrigerators, washing machines, and stoves tend to be more susceptible to damage in transit, and these are the items most needed by households establishing homes. Such goods may command higher prices even in a stabilized market.
He predicted shortages could linger into the second half of summer, possibly into August, before brands adjust and prices normalize. Still, the overall direction should bring a more balanced pricing landscape as supply chains improve and competition evolves.