Rewritten: Industrial Strategy and Import Substitution Updates

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Recorded “without withdrawal”

State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin announced the decision to approve Denis Manturov, with deputies expressing their commitment to lend support for boosting the country’s industrial development.

Today, Manturov met with all factions of the State Duma and the Committee on Industry and Commerce. During the plenary session, after addressing MPs’ questions, they endorsed his candidacy for Deputy Prime Minister.

The minister described the government’s measures to shield the economy from sanctions as highly effective, noting that they helped prevent a steep decline in industry.

He emphasized that the first five months closed in positive territory, nearly at 2 percent. Yet he cautioned that this gain largely reflects inertia in industries with long production cycles and preassembled materials and components, and cannot be a reason for complacency.

According to Manturov, exports may shrink and Western markets could close further, placing heightened pressure on metallurgy, the chemical complex, and the timber sector. Even with signs of growth in defense-related activity, he warned that manufacturing output could fall by about 6 percent in 2022.

Nevertheless, the official argued that the focus should shift from purely statistical indicators to the broader tasks facing the industry as a whole.

“Today, the priority is to move from a market-centric industrial policy to one that ensures technological leadership, with an emphasis on maintaining a steady supply of critical components,” he explained.

Import substitution

Manturov also outlined import substitution strategies for agricultural machinery, noting that Russian components already account for more than 90 percent of this field.

He stressed the need to establish new cooperation networks to secure a reliable supply of essential parts. The current approach relies heavily on manual coordination with companies and diplomatic missions abroad. Simultaneously, there will be accelerated development of domestic analogues to replace imported individual components.

Concurrently, Manturov announced efforts to rebuild logistics channels and create alternative routes, taking into account emerging foreign markets. He also highlighted planned funding for import substitution in machine tool construction, aiming to introduce versatile universal tooling. Additionally, he proposed expanding residential construction to support the industry’s demand for building materials.

He called for replacing foreign equipment in the energy complex, including reconnaissance, drilling, and offshore systems, and urged faster development of our own medium and large-capacity equipment for LNG production, to boost domestic capacity and reduce reliance on imports.

“In this arena, increasing capacities means substituting foreign exploration, drilling, and offshore gear while speeding up the creation of our own LNG equipment,” the minister stated. “This will also enable us to supply all the necessary pipes domestically for the full gasification of the country.”

Troubled and successful sectors

Manturov told State Duma deputies that Russia does not face a fertilizer shortage, pointing out that domestic needs are more than fully met.

Nevertheless, he cautioned that 2022 would see a roughly 50 percent drop in automobile sales and production in the country.

“The most vulnerable sector is the automotive industry. This year, both market demand and production are expected to fall by about half,” he noted. He suggested that a revival could be catalyzed by the adoption of electric vehicles.

He also mentioned progress on aviation, noting that the domestic-engine Il-114-300 passenger aircraft is set to receive a type certificate by the end of 2023. He added that next year will bring certification for a Superjet powered by a domestic PD-8 engine and for the Il-114-300 with a TV7-117 engine. A related Ladoga aircraft would receive certification in 2024, along with the Baikal aircraft using the VK-800 engine and the MS-21-310 featuring the PD-14 engine. Overall, the aviation development program aims to produce more than 1,000 aircraft by 2030.

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