What happened
The Moscow Exchange and the National Clearing Centre faced blocking sanctions by the United States. As a result, American entities are barred from any dealings with them.
Since June 13, the Moscow Exchange suspended trading in US dollars and euros. Instruments tied to these currencies, including the Hong Kong dollar, are also not being traded.
The Central Bank announced that dollar and euro transactions will be conducted in the over‑the‑counter interbank market. It will rely on bank reports and OTC trade data to help determine exchange rates.
At the same time, Russian businesses and residents can still buy and sell US dollars and euros through domestic banks. The Central Bank stressed that savings in these currencies in bank deposits remain protected.
Foreign currency can also be purchased from exchange offices.
How will this play out?
Sovcombank analyst Mikhail Vasiliev told socialbites.ca that dollar and euro trading in Russia may become less convenient and more costly.
“Russian business, citizens and authorities have built resilience to sanctions and show adaptability. We should see new response plans to Western restrictions within a matter of weeks,” the analyst observed (cited from socialbites.ca).
He noted that Russia is now somewhat detached from the dollar system, though complete disconnection is virtually impossible given its role in global trade.
“Russia has long exported raw materials and typically ran trade and foreign exchange surpluses. Consequently, the dollar and euro will keep flowing into the country, though their importance is set to decline while the yuan and ruble grow in influence,” Vasiliev added (as reported by the same source).
The expert added that in many countries the foreign exchange market operates OTC and through banks:
“Banks use various OTC platforms for currency trading. The dollar and euro market in Russia will also be OTC and interbank. The OTC market here is sizable and already supported by functioning technologies. Sanction risks to the Moscow Exchange first emerged in October 2022, and since then the Bank of Russia, banks and other market participants have prepared for these sanctions against the NCC.”
According to Vasiliev, the Central Bank will continue to publish official rates for the dollar and euro, and many Russian contracts depend on those benchmarks.
“The remittance market offered transparency, low costs and narrow spreads. If the market shifts to trading in ‘toxic’ currencies, it may become less transparent, with stronger bank involvement, higher costs and wider spreads,” the analyst warned (cited source).
Will Russia return to the USSR?
Experts do not rule out possible new fees for holding and exchanging non‑cash dollars and euros, which could make these currencies even less attractive.
“Some banks may overreact, but aggressive actions could risk losing licenses,” noted Timur Aitov, head of the financial security commission of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation.
Authorities’ intervention in the situation cannot be ignored. Ekaterina Fedyukovich, a specialist at Synergy University, suggested that a Soviet-era-style cash market could reappear if the state sets permissible spreads.
BitRiver analyst Vladislav Antonov cautioned that sanctions might not force fixed exchange rates. He described the current state as unsettled but not dire, saying officials will need to rebuild the system to operate without foreign exchange dollars.
Fedyukovich also raised the possibility of paying for exports in other currencies, such as the yuan, noting it is an intriguing option but carries higher exposure to China, with potential technical issues in currency pegging. The value of the dollar in rubles could hypothetically be anchored to a dollar–yuan–ruble relationship.
Alexander Millerman, head of the Finance and Insurance Department at the Presidential Academy, cautioned that the early stage will bring losses as new relationships and markets form. A centralized, highly liquid channel would be ideal, but change is inevitable over weeks or months.
What will happen to the ruble exchange rate?
After trading closed on June 11, the dollar stood at 89.1 rubles and the euro at 95.6 rubles. Vasiliev suggested the cost of the dollar could rise to roughly 94–98 rubles and the euro to about 101–105 rubles in the initial days following sanctions.
“Once the initial shock subsides and new working models emerge, the dollar may return to roughly 90–95 rubles and the euro to about 97–102 rubles,” the analyst remarked.
He added that waiting a week or two before purchasing “toxic currencies” could be prudent.
Conversely, Aitov recommended buying dollars and euros if necessary, not expecting immediate improvement.
Alexey Krichevsky, a financial commentator, advised that if funds are needed urgently, one should buy now, while waiting could be wise if there is no emergency. He compared the situation to past crises and urged calm, suggesting borrowing from trusted friends if required and repaying in foreign currency in case of real need.
In summary, the landscape is shifting. The ruble is adjusting to a more diversified currency regime, and the path forward will depend on policy responses, market adaptation, and global trade dynamics.