GV Plekhanov Konstantin Ordov, the Head of the Department of Financial Markets at the Russian University of Economics, says the ruble’s near-term trajectory will swing based on exporters’ behavior in light of new customs duties. In a discussion broadcast by Moscow speaks, the economist notes that the government is trying to push foreign exchange earnings back into Russia, yet companies themselves are weighing which path proves more profitable: paying higher export taxes or pursuing other options. Ordov emphasizes that this stance is new for both state authorities and business, as well as for tax agencies. credit: Expert
Experts warn that if the stabilization plan for the ruble does not take hold, exporters could be compelled to liquidate their foreign currency earnings. This shift would further affect the country’s balance of payments and the availability of foreign currency for domestic needs. credit: Analyst
Starting October 1, Russia began implementing flexible export taxes that respond to the ruble’s exchange rate. These measures cover a broad spectrum of goods, spanning metals, fertilizers, and agricultural products, with the aim of moderating the impact of currency fluctuations on trade flows. credit: Economic Review
Under the new regime, customs duties for most products are set at 4-7 percent, provided the dollar exchange rate remains under 80 rubles. Fertilizers carry a duty range of 7-10 percent. The flexible tax framework is designed to soften exchange-rate shocks on the trade balance and to widen the supply of goods in the domestic market. Projections estimate that the tax changes will add around 151 billion rubles to the budget by the end of 2022 and exceed 600 billion rubles in 2023. credit: Financial Analysis
On October 2, the dollar rate on the Moscow Stock Exchange surpassed 99 rubles for the first time since mid-August, highlighting the currency volatility in the short run. credit: Market Watch
Earlier discussions explored the question of how a weaker ruble might influence the broader economy and what policy responses could be expected from the government and central bank. credit: Economic Commentary