Don’t forget? In the movie “Moscow does not believe in tears”? “Nothing will happen. No cinema, no theater, no books, no newspapers – a constant television, ”says the unsuccessful groom Rudolf, predicting the future. To some extent he was right. People stopped reading books. Going to the theater (in many ways) has become an insignificant minority. Metro no longer opens the printed newspapers on the way to work.
Film? What about cinema? It seems we’re ahead of the rest in getting rid of it this year, but for a very specific reason. TV is still with us. But then, from behind the “iron curtain” between us now, the speaking chairman of Disney Corporation Bob Iger, former CEO of Disney Corporation, appears with the words: “Soon there will be no television.” That means it won’t happen either. It’s time to bury him. Both satellite TV and cable. It’s like the end is coming. However, his date of death was not disclosed. He also declared that the cinema is very sick, if not on the verge of death: the habit of making group trips to the cinema, including family trips, is gradually disappearing.
So before I was “buried”, I remember the same newspapers, then the radio. And they are not dead yet. However, no one was bothered by the circus burial, which was more alive than any creature that had previously spread to areas beyond his control.
Someone will habitually shout in response: they say, order, paid! For example, Bob out of his old habit is lobbying a streaming service. However, the emerging trends observed in American television (which, with a certain number of delays, will certainly spread to the rest of the world, as in many other industries) rather speak of its partial justification. Television – both satellite and cable – is losing its audience. Advertisers are going to digital platforms, the social network, the ever-growing monster called Amazon (not much, but the output is stable). Oddly enough, the number of people who continue to watch TV remains relatively stable (and even slightly increasing), but not via a dish or cable, but through a conventional antenna. Because first for free, and second for not feeling cut off from this world. Thirdly, the “antenna”, as a rule, is mainly local content, which is purely utilitarian in nature – conditionally “where they give what”, as well as local events and traffic jams. There he mutters something in the kitchen or living room – well, let him mutter.
The main trend of recent years in the United States is the withdrawal of users from cable TV networks. Because people don’t want to spend money on a subscription. It’s better to pay (and less) some Netflix and have the right to choose from, rather than mindlessly scrolling through hundreds of channels without finding anything interesting out there. And while 60 million Americans still have cable TV at home (16 million “over-the-air”), viewership declines in recent years have been a steady 7-10% each year. There has been no increase in the number of cable subscribers since the turn of the century. The audience is maturing, too: The young go, the old stay, the ones the cable is more familiar with with all this new fashion stuff. The history of cable television in America dates back to 1952, when it had 14,000 subscribers nationwide, and peaked in the late 1990s.
They mostly go for streaming services. Growing spending, many households subscribing to several services (average check is $37 per month, against this background, some local similar services seem “overpriced”).
Experts predict that the future lies in more “customization”, including cable TV, which can try to survive by giving subscribers strictly individually, not standard packages of hundreds of channels (the vast majority of which have never watched). It can also change every month. Also for interactive content, for example, the viewer can join a TV show or even correct the script of the show.
Plus, virtual reality technologies, which of course are not transmitted through a dish, much less “via the antenna”.
Many of the above trends have already begun to make themselves felt in our country. The same Netflix departure and other dramatic changes that occurred after 02/24/2022 might slow their development a bit, but they won’t stop completely.
The younger generation already watches much less TV. The average age of the “typical Russian TV viewer” in 2019 exceeded 50 years. But be skeptical when you’re proudly told, “I threw my TV away years ago.” Because 96% of Russians have at least one box at home. About 80% watch TV at least once a week. One-third of households have two televisions, and 15 percent have three. The average number of available channels is around 80. The number of streaming service users in Russia has grown steadily until this year, but now we’ll see what’s left of that growth once things settle down.
It’s the same with online movies. By 2020, subscriptions to them for the first time became the main source of income for Russian online cinemas. However, now there is every reason to believe that, against the backdrop of the worldwide boycott of our country by the main filmmakers, the pirates will once again collapse under unexpected blows for compliance with Russian laws (in terms of copyright enforcement). raise your sails. And head. After all, there is a philistine logic here: If you are like this with us, then we will be like this with you.
By the beginning of this year, the number of pay-TV users in Russia has increased, reaching approximately 46.5 million people. Although already in 2021, the growth in the monetary volume of the pay-TV market has practically stopped (at the level of about 106 billion rubles). The penetration of this service was 82%. Cable TV is down (360,000 subscribers last year). The reason is the same as in America: people do not want to pay for anything for hundreds of channels that no one needs, and the same “big four” that can be made for free, if they really watch it. Satellite TV continues to stagnate.
Up to 70% of Russians aged 18 to 24 have switched from “TV party” to “Internet party” (VTsIOM data). There are almost half among middle-aged Russians. In absolute terms, however, TV remained the main media channel for more than 60% of Russians before the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine.
It’s too early to summarize the implications of the audience restructuring after CBO debuted. There are several multifaceted factors. For some, this is an attempt to find “alternative sources of information” in the face of well-known limitations. For others, on the contrary, the desire to forget oneself under the pretext of “political fatigue”. Well, etc. All this pushes someone to the “positive”, who, even if nervous, has more than enough on television. Someone – to cats in the social network, or even more so to classmates.
What are the expectations? Yes, all the same as global ones, but there are known technological restrictions (sanctions) on access to related technologies. Sooner or later, when the smoke clears and the dust settles, the same questions about “content customization” and “interaction” will arise. If TV still wants to resist streaming altogether, not as a niche product.
I don’t know how it would be in terms of the opportunity to participate in some Malakhov shows within the framework of virtual reality, but I would encourage individualization of the news with terrible force if I could. And in the end, everyone would only get the news they liked, and the ones they didn’t like would get none. For example, in order not to be upset and “not to be burdened by this policy of yours”. Or just be about good. About successes and victories, let’s say. And for others – about “everything is bad for them out there.” And we would eventually be separated in different virtual realities. And there would be peace and quiet and the glory of complete knowledge. And a little something – “and I’m at home.” And at home – a box. And there, in the box everything is fine and exactly as I ordered it.
The author expresses his personal opinion, which may not coincide with the editors’ position.