In favor of the protection of the key ratio, all of the Gazeta.ru exposed experts examined by -21% did not change.
“In my opinion, the key ratio will not be changed until the end of the first quarter. So far there is no additional, valid, reliable information about inflation trend. January is usually an inconsistent month from this point of view. The growth of housing and common services, seasonality, short work program – all this in January. To see where inflation moves, you need to wait until two quarters. Then some solutions may be possible [по ключевой ставке] Accept it more reasonable ” – in question “Gazete.
In the last meeting on February 14, in favor of increasing the key rate, arguments increased the inflation rate and inflation expectations. The latest data show that the current inflation rate slows down and inflationist expectations begin to decrease. In addition, the lending is weak according to operational data.
According to the Chief Analyst of Sovcombank Mikhail Vasilev, seasonally adjusted inflation (Inflation, taking into account the seasonal price fluctuations in which the Central Bank is carefully looking at a significant proportion) Slowed down in February 8 % After 10.7% in January and 14% in December. In March, the analyst awaits more slowdowns in seasonally adjusted inflation 7 %.
“Pre -interest rates are protected for further slowing of inflation – these are high interest rates and cooling loans, the slowdown in budget expenditures in the following months, the Russian Federation – a powerful ruble and active negotiations of the USA”, – In an interview with Gazete.
The first symptoms of decreased tension in the labor market also emerge. Rosstat said that unemployment increased to 2.4% after three months in a row in January. The Central Bank has noted that it is too early to judge a sustainable slowdown in loans, because in December – February, lending can be associated with increasing budget expenditures.
“Therefore, the Central Bank is likely to take a break in the coming months. [в изменении ключевой ставки]To slow down the stability of lending. On March 21, the regulatory can soften the current harsh signal about future actions for a neutral signal.
What will happen to deposits
Banks began to reduce deposit rates in 2025. Deposit yield decreased by approximately 1-2.5 points (paragraphs). According to the Central Bank, the average maximum interest rate on deposits in 10 largest banks fell from 22.28% in the mid -2024 21.44 % In the first decade of February 2025. Experts believe that after the Central Bank’s decision on 21 March, banks will continue to reduce bets on deposits and accumulated accounts.
In accordance with the Government of the Russian Federation, the Professor of Economics at the University of Finance, if Igor Baly is a key rate to Gazeta.ru The profitability of deposits will remain unchanged up to six months and can go down during longer deposits..
“Not only the decision on the level of the key ratio, but also the signal of future decisions can affect bets on deposits with more than six months. Accordingly, compared to deposits with more than six months, there may be a decrease in bets. 0.5-2 p.“, – Balynin murmured.
Vasiliev admitted that inflation would gradually decrease to 6.7% in annual periods by the end of 2025. Expert, the real positive rates in the deposit is possible to correct for a long time, he added.
The Senior Researcher at the IPEI Structural Research Laboratory of the Presidential Academy Vladimir Eremkin added that the risks on financed accounts will be significantly lower than the deposits. According to the Economist, there is no reason to assume that betting on cumulative accounts may increase.
What will happen to loans
In 2025, banks reduced mortgage rates and consumer loans an average of 1-2.5 points. Currently, basic mortgage rates for new buildings start at 28.8% per year. The full cost of a loan (taking into account commissions) can reach 38.19 %. Basic mortgage rates for secondary housing start at 28.8% per year. PSK changes 29.95 with 38.19 %. PSK exceeds consumer loans 37 %. According to experts, the rates of loans, including mortgage and consumer loans after the decision of the Central Bank, will gradually decrease in the nearest neighborhoods after deposits.
According to Vasilyev’s estimation, the average mortgage rates to the end of the first quarter market level, 0.5 pp. Under the Government of the Russian Federation, the Associate Professor of Finance Olga Panina, the Central Bank’s decision, warned that the decline in loan rates may be several months.
What will happen to Ruble
Economists are sure that the key rate of the central bank at the moment will not have a significant impact on the Ruble exchange rate. At the same time, experts are waiting for the current high key rate It will continue to support the Russian currency in the medium term. On the one hand, a high key ratio contributes to the attractiveness of ruble savings (20%+deposit per year). On the other hand, a high key ratio cools the consumer and investment request and the demand for the currency, as a result of which the ruble is strengthened.
“The dynamics of Ruble are largely determined by the news history of the Russian Federation – the course of the negotiations of the US and the geopolitical situation. Active negotiations on the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict continue and continue to be the main driving force for the prices of Russian assets. In addition, in favor of the Ruble, in the first quarter seasonally low money demand and 6 billion rubles per day, as part of budget operations, Yuan has sales from reserves. At the end of March, the tax period will provide additional ruble support when exporters will actively sell money for calculations with the budget.
Vasiliev is sure that the ruble will be strong by the end of March: the cost of the dollar 82-89 rublesEuro – 89-97 rublesyuan – 11.3–12.2 Ruble. Nisheva claimed that if anti -Russian sanctions are alleviated, the dollar would fit in 80 rubles, but again the price would rise to 90 rubles.
“Ruble fluctuations in foreign currencies will always be, but they should not be afraid, because this is a normal practice for the market. At the same time, now I think to invest in a foreign currency, I think. I believe that it is better to stay in the Ruble region: the possibilities of cash from inflation twice have been created here. ”
What will happen next?
The following meetings will be held on 25 April and 6 June at the Central Bank’s key ratio. Experts have not excluded that the regulator may begin to reduce the key rate in these meetings.
“In March-April, by reducing the expectations of inflation and inflation with a positive series of loans. The Central Bank may start to discuss the decrease in the key rate in subsequent meetings on 25 April and 6 June. ”
Ilya Fedorov, the chief economist of the BCS investment world, is prone to the central bank on June 6 will begin to reduce the key rate.
Anastasia Nyisheva, an expert of Avi Capital Analytic Studies, suggested that a key reduction could be immediately 1 point for the first time. Up to 20 %. Nisheva at the end of 2025, 18 %.
According to Vasiliev, the geopolitical factor continues to be the main factor of uncertainty for estimation. A new derivative factor may be a decrease in oil prices.