The Roscongress Foundation presented a report this year listing possible “black swans” for the global economy. “2025 Important Events. Excerpts from the “Geoeconomics” report. Predictions. “Main risks” published RIA Novosti.
In economics, a “black swan” is a sudden event that leads to significant consequences. The report calls the main risk to the global economy a trade war of “all against all” with a maximum increase in tariffs; The result could be “a repeat of the Great Depression in terms of a collapse in trade.”
“One of the most predictable crises has to do with America’s debt problem. The authors of the document stated that in November 2024, the US national debt exceeded $ 36 trillion for the first time, which is approximately $ 107,000 for each person in the country.
According to them, the tax cuts proposed by the elected American President Donald Trump will further worsen the budget deficit and national debt situation in the USA.
According to the report, cyber threats and possible damage to digital infrastructure, especially undersea internet cables, may also be this year’s black swans. The authors explained that the world’s financial infrastructure is highly dependent on network speed, and 99% of intercontinental Internet traffic passes over submarine fiber optic cables.
“Therefore, any accidental damage or targeted attack could result in huge losses, especially considering the difficulty of repairing such cables,” they added.
Previous new US sanctions in the name “Black swan” for the ruble.
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Source: Gazeta
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