The number of apartments purchased by Russians in new buildings in 2025 may decrease by 19-35% compared to 2024. This estimate is contained in a study by the company Yakov and Partners (available from socialbites.ca).
In the base case scenario, this means a decrease in sales from RUB 7.5 trillion. To 5.3 trillion rubles in 2023. In 2025. In the base scenario, house prices will increase by 12 percent in 2024-2025. Analysts explained that developers may start offering discounts of 5-30% to buyers to maintain sales volumes and close project financing. Banks may launch mortgage loans with variable interest rates or deferral of the first loan payment, which will increase the demand for apartments. However, analysts concluded that the high level of inflation projected for this period would support the relative nominal stability of real estate prices.
“From the perspective of the structure of the cost of residential construction, the cost of one square meter in the basic scenario will increase by about 15% in the next three years, while the development marginality in 2025 may be up to 10. % compared to 15-60% in 2023, we may even go negative. All these factors will cause 30% of developers to experience losses in 2025,” Danchenok concluded.
In case of a pessimistic scenario, the volume of new housing sales will decrease even further, to 4.9 trillion rubles. In 2025. The pessimistic scenario assumes that the Central Bank will further increase the key interest rate (currently 21%), Russians’ freely disposable income will decrease, and external restrictions will continue.
According to VTB, in the first 10 months of 2024 Russians took out mortgages worth 4.2 trillion rubles (-30% compared to the same period in 2023). The number of mortgage transactions this October decreased by 60% compared to September.
previously named odds Under mortgage in 2025.
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Source: Gazeta
Ben Stock is a business analyst and writer for “Social Bites”. He offers insightful articles on the latest business news and developments, providing readers with a comprehensive understanding of the business world.