Expert predicted next week’s dollar, euro and yuan exchange rates 11:40

The yuan exchange rate next week will be 13-13.4 rubles. One dollar will cost 92-94 rubles, and one euro will cost 102-104 rubles. This forecast was given to socialbites.ca by BCS World of Investments analyst Denis Buivolov.

“We expect stability in exchange rates. It is possible for the ruble to strengthen towards the lower limits of these ranges from time to time. First of all, considering the decline in oil prices in September, it is highly likely that the regulatory authority will increase the daily foreign exchange sales volume in the market within the framework of the fiscal rule. Net foreign exchange sales in September are almost zero Secondly, the escalation scenario in the Middle East is, first of all, the scenario of increasing energy prices, which means indirect support for ruble assets,” Buivolov explained.

According to him, the response of oil prices to the rise in the region so far seems moderate, meaning markets do not believe in the possibility of a larger-scale conflict. But geopolitical risks have clearly increased, and crude oil prices could sharply reach $90-100 or even more if, for example, Iran decides to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes every day. the analyst predicted. Finally, Buivolov suggested that, purely technically, foreign currencies may “cool off” a bit after prolonged growth.

Buivolov added that the effect of the Central Bank’s interest rate is not immediate, but cumulative: the effect of an interest rate increase for the ruble can be expressed in a month or two, that is, the ruble can receive the main support from the monetary factor in late autumn and early winter. At the same time, Buivolov noted that a tight monetary policy will allow to limit the gradual weakening of the ruble, which will most likely develop only against the backdrop of an active recovery in imports and restrained export dynamics.

Currently, the cost of the dollar in the over-the-counter market is 94.56 rubles, and the euro is 104.75 rubles. On the Moscow Stock Exchange, the yuan is trading at 13.34 rubles (data at 11:08 Moscow time on October 2).

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Source: Gazeta

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