In a conversation with Sergey Suverov, investment strategist at Aricapital Management Company, he said: “Hitting the Primer”The Russian ruble has been fluctuating around 55 per dollar in recent days, but there is no significant up or down bounce.
The expert made more guesses.
According to him, the authorities are trying to weaken the ruble by implementing a new version of the budget rule and a further cut in the Bank of Russia’s rate. In favor of weakening, the restoration of imports that started and the purchase of the dollar by the public are working.
Other factors: the start of a new tax period, small imports, uncertainty about fiscal rule.
Thus, the ruble keeps the balance. Suverov allowed strengthening to 50 rubles per dollar, but in August the local currency will begin to weaken due to currency interventions.
On July 22, the Central Bank will reduce the interest rate to 8.5% – 9% annually. such a guess “socialbites.ca” by economists and financiers. According to them, deposit and loan rates will drop to 7-7.5% and 14-15% respectively from now on. The Central Bank’s decision will not affect the ruble. The regulator will continue the key rate reduction cycle in 2022. It can reach 7.5-8% by December.