Falling Treasury bills and conflict in Ukraine continues to push dollar to $3,746

The dollar opened at an average of $3,746.07, which represents a drop of $19.89 compared to the Representative Market Rate (TRM) of $3,765.96 for today’s session.

The opening price recorded by the Set-FX platform was $3,748.50, with a high of $3,748 and a low of $3,743. US$13 million was negotiated in 46 transactions during the day.

U.S. futures fell along with European equities, while energy prices rose as hopes for peace in Ukraine waned and very high inflation readings highlighted risks to the economic outlook.

US benchmark contracts fell amid warnings that gains over the past two weeks are characteristic of a bear market rally and concerns that the Treasury curve is signaling an impending recession.

The European Stoxx 600 broke a three-day winning streak after climbing to a five-week high after the Kremlin said there was no progress in talks with Ukraine.

dollar fellThe euro rose and the yen rebounded from a six-year low after the Bank of Japan promised to buy more securities than planned and include long-term debt.

Treasury yields stabilized as European bonds fell, as traders bet that higher inflation will force the European Central Bank to end the era of negative rates sooner than expected. Germany’s two-year yields, one of the most sensitive to changes in the official benchmark interest rate, are on track to close above zero for the first time since 2014.

The economic toll of the war in Ukraine worsens in Europe as already record high inflation rises further and Germany faces a recession due to its dependence on Russian energy. The invasion of Russia has shaken confidence in the Eurozone and price expectations It’s the highest consumer-to-consumer level since registrations began in 1985.

Spanish inflation rose at its fastest pace in almost four decades, while German figures hit the highest since records began after reunification in the early 1990s.

While President Vladimir Putin insisted that essential fuel should be paid in rubles, Germany has put in place a contingency plan to prepare for a possible Russian gas cut. Russia could expand the list of commodities payable in rubles to include grain, oil, metals and others.

Energy and commodity stocks rose with oil and gas prices as NATO allies weighed whether Russia’s commitment to reduce military operations was a turning point in the conflict or simply a tactical shift.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov underscored the difficulties faced by efforts to reach a ceasefire, saying that negotiations with Ukraine are not making progress and that there is still a lot of work to be done before an agreement is possible.

Intercontinental Exchange Inc. is considering changes to European gas futures after prices soared to record highs, causing some companies to halt trading, according to sources familiar with the matter.

The rally in global stocks remains fragile as the war in Ukraine drags on. Treasury yield curve inversion is fueling debate about the risks of slowing growth as central banks globally begin to withdraw stimulus. Money markets in the US are pricing in additional interest rate increases by two percentage points this year.

He said the lack of clarity in the ceasefire talks and the shortage of supply chains will create headwinds for the markets.

this consumer confidence The latest confidence data in the US seems resilient as strong job growth suggests that for now, Americans’ concerns about accelerating inflation are offset. Friday’s government data is expected to show the economy added close to half a million jobs in March as the unemployment rate fell to 3.7%.

US WTI crude rose 3.66% to US$108.06, while European Brent crude rose 3.34% to US$111.35. The second is the reference for Colombia.

Crude oil prices rebounded somewhat from their latest losses on Wednesday, gaining nearly 2%, amid tight supplies and the prospect of new Western sanctions against Russia, despite signs of progress in peace talks between Moscow and Russia and Kyiv.

“If relations with Europe deteriorate and an oil embargo is imposed, we would see Russia’s production of an additional million barrels per day at risk, although we still consider it unlikely,” consultancy JBC Energy said in a note.

“The United States and its allies are planning new sanctions on more sectors of the Russian economy that are critical to continuing their occupation of Ukraine, including military supply chains,” he said.

Market attention was focused on tight supply after the American Petroleum Institute (API) said crude inventories fell 3 million barrels in the week ended March 25, more than triple the drop expected by the 10 average analysts polled by Reuters.

To keep up the market tension, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, which is jointly called OPEC+, said it is unlikely that major oil producers will increase output above the agreed upon 400,000 bpd when they meet on Thursday. group.

However, oil prices are under pressure from weakening demand in China due to tightening of mobility restrictions and Covid-19-related lockdowns in many cities, including Shanghai’s financial centre.

Source: Lare Publica


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