dollar for 85 rubles. What will happen to the course in the summer? Analyst Trifonov called the 85 ruble level as the limit of the decline in the dollar exchange rate 05.27.2024, 16:34

According to foreign exchange data at 15:57 Moscow time, the cost of the dollar is 88.8 rubles and the euro is 96.2 rubles.

In a conversation with socialbites.ca, Sovcombank’s chief analyst Mikhail Vasiliev explained that the ruble exchange rate has strengthened in recent days due to the decline in imports due to sanctions, the May tax period and the increased likelihood of Russia increasing its key interest rate. Central Bank (currently 16%).

“At the beginning of this week, the ruble will be supported by the May tax period – until May 28, exporters will actively sell their foreign currency earnings for payments to the budget. From Wednesday until the end of June, the ruble will lose this support factor,” Vasiliev said.

In his opinion, the factors that led to the strengthening and weakening of the ruble remain balanced, which ensured the stability of the exchange rate for seven consecutive months.

Pros and cons of strengthening the ruble

The analyst explained that in favor of the ruble These include the forced sale of foreign exchange earnings for the largest exporters, high oil prices and the current account surplus of Russia’s balance of payments and the sale of yuan from reserves for 6.3 billion rubles. daily and high ruble interest rates as part of budget operations.

According to Vasilyev’s prediction, the Central Bank will increase the interest rate by another 100 basis points to 17 percent in the coming meetings and keep it at this level until the end of the year. This will most likely lead to an increase in deposit interest rates and increase the attractiveness of ruble savings, which means the ruble exchange rate will strengthen, the analyst noted.

He also named Negative factors for the ruble Foreign tourism, geopolitical and sanctions risks, capital outflow, demand for money to buy shares of Russian companies from foreign owners, increased budget expenditures and seasonally increased demand for foreign currency since May, including those that go for its purchase, among other things. imports.

BCS Forex analyst Anatoly Trifonov told socialbites.ca that he thinks the current strengthening of the ruble is a short-term story caused by the stronger impact of financial sanctions on Russian imports than on exports.

“The current strengthening of the exchange rate is similar to the situation in 2022, but we do not expect this to be repeated in full. Russian authorities are actively engaging at the political level with new major trading partners (China, UAE, Turkey) to ease restrictions on international payments. Russian businesses have also gained significant experience in circumventing sanctions over the past two years and have become more flexible, the analyst said.

What will the course be like this summer?

According to Vasiliev’s forecast, the ruble rate will remain stable in the summer: the dollar will cost 85-92 rubleseuro – 92-100 rubles. Candidate of Economic Sciences, Director of the Federal Financial Literacy Methodological Center, Associate Professor, Department of Global Financial Markets and Fintech, Russian University of Economics. GV Plekhanov Denis Perepelitsa is waiting for the dollar in the summer 85-90 rubles.

“During the summer months, the dollar rate will be in a wide range from 87 to 100 rubles. By the end of this year, the dollar is likely not to fall below 87 rubles, but by the end of the summer it may rise to the 100 ruble mark, BitRiver economist and communications director Andrei Loboda told socialbites.ca.

Vasiliev believes that if there are no new shocks, the ruble exchange rate will remain stable until the end of the year. Trifonov does not expect the dollar to fall 85 rub.The ruble will be at its strongest level next month. Perepelitsa also made the same assessment, adding that the American currency would reach this level by the end of July.

97 rubles per dollar by the end of the year

According to Vasiliev, the average dollar exchange rate this quarter will be as follows: 92 rub.In the third or fourth quarter the expert expects an average rate 95 rub.for a dollar. Vasiliev expects that in the second half of the year, due to the slowdown in the global economy, oil prices of the North Sea Brent brand will show a moderate decline from an average of $82 to $79 per barrel. According to Vasiliev, the period from May to the end of the year is generally less favorable for the ruble due to seasonal factors.

Trifonov admitted that in the future, the ruble will continue its weakening trend until the end of the year, but this trend will slow down in the fourth quarter, and a cycle of interest rate cuts will begin in the USA. According to Trifonov, the dollar will appreciate at the end of the year 92-94 rub..

Konstantin Tuzov, a researcher at the IPEI Structural Research Laboratory of the Presidential Academy, believes that most of the factors supporting the ruble will disappear within the year, sanctions pressure on exports will increase and the exchange rate will gradually weaken. The dollar will approach by the end of the year 95-97 rub.Tuzov is sure. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development makes approximately the same predictions – the average annual dollar exchange rate is 94.7 rubles. this year and 98.6 rubles. in the next one.

If you need to buy foreign currency, it is better to do it in the summer months, when the dollar exchange rate is at a minimum.

What are you thinking?

The value of the dollar fell below 89 rubles for the first time since January 30, 2024. In trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange on May 27, the dollar rate fell to 88.3 rubles, down 1.2 rubles from the closing level on May 24. The euro exchange rate decreased by 3.8 rubles to 95.2 rubles. Analysts believe that the dollar’s decline limit will be 85 rubles. In the second half of the year, the ruble exchange rate will begin to weaken and experts do not rule out 97 rubles to the dollar. What will happen to exchange rates in the summer and when is the best time to buy foreign currency – in the material of socialbites.ca.



Source: Gazeta

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